Publications

Africa File, September 5, 2024: Egypt, Ethiopia, and Somalia Conflict Looms; IS Gains in Niger; Russia Aids Burkina Faso’s Nuclear Energy Push

September 5, 2024 - ISW Press

Egypt is growing military cooperation with Somalia and deployed troops to Somalia, which is increasing tensions with Ethiopia and raising the risk of direct or proxy military clashes between Egypt and Somalia against Ethiopia. The Somali Federal Government is trying to pressure Ethiopia to withdraw its military forces from Somalia and annul its port agreement with the de facto independent breakaway Somaliland region. Egypt wants to counter Ethiopia’s growing influence on the Nile and Red Sea, which are economically vital waterways for Egypt.

Iran Update, September 4, 2024

September 4, 2024 - ISW Press

Senior Iranian military officials have continued to signal that Iran will attack Israel directly in response to Israel killing several senior Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent weeks. Armed Forces General Staff Coordination Deputy Brigadier General Ali Abdollahi Ali Abadi claimed on September 4 that Israel “must bury [its] dream that Iran will not respond” to Haniyeh's death.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2024

September 4, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure in Lviv City, Lviv Oblast and Kryvyi Rih, Dnipropetrovsk Oblast during another mid-sized combined drone and missile strike on the night of September 3 to 4. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched two Kh-47 Kinzhal aeroballistic missiles from MiG-31K aircraft over Tula Oblast; two Kh-22 cruise missiles from Tu-22M3 strategic bombers over the Black Sea; six Kh-101 cruise missiles from Tu-95 strategic bombers from Volgograd Oblast airspace; three Iskander-K cruise missiles from occupied Crimea; and 29 Shahed-136/131 drones from launch areas in Kursk Oblast.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 3, 2024

September 3, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces struck civilian infrastructure and a military educational facility in Poltava City with two Iskander-M ballistic missiles, killing and wounding a significant number of people, as part of a wider strike series on the night of September 2 to 3.

Iran Update, September 3, 2024

September 3, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas has continued to exploit Israeli hostages in an information operation likely in order to increase pressure on Israel to accept a ceasefire-hostage agreement. Hamas likely calculates that this effort could create more favorable terms for Hamas in such an agreement while weakening the Israeli state.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 2, 2024

September 2, 2024 - ISW Press

Iran is expected to “imminently” deliver ballistic missiles to Russia to support the Russian invasion of Ukraine. An unspecified European official told Bloomberg on September 2 that Iran could begin shipping ballistic missiles to Russia "within a matter of days.” European intelligence sources previously told Reuters in August 2024 that Iran and Russia signed a contract in December 2023 for Iran to deliver Ababil close-range ballistic missiles and Fateh-360 short-range ballistic missiles (SRBMs) to Russia.

Iran Update, September 2, 2024

September 2, 2024 - ISW Press

The Masoud Pezeshkian administration is continuing to signal its willingness to pursue nuclear negotiations with the West. Iranian media reported on September 2 that Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi appointed Majid Takht Ravanchi as deputy foreign affairs minister for political affairs. Araghchi has not officially announced Ravanchi’s appointment at the time of this writing. Ravanchi was part of the Iranian nuclear negotiating team under former President Hassan Rouhani that helped conclude the 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) between Iran and the P5+1.

Iran Update, September 1, 2024

September 1, 2024 - ISW Press

A senior Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Quds Force commander reiterated Iran’s support for Hamas’ maximalist ceasefire demands on September 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 1, 2024

September 1, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted the largest series of drone strikes against targets within Russia on the night of August 31 to September 1.

Iran Update, August 31, 2024

August 31, 2024 - ISW Press

At least two Palestinian fighters attempted to carry out two coordinated car bombing attacks in the Gush Etzion area of the West Bank on August 30. No militia has claimed responsibility for the attack at the time of writing, though the attack targeting IDF settlements is consistent with recent Hamas threats to target Israeli settlers in the West Bank. 

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