Publications

Russia Poses Long-Term Threats to Moldova’s European Integration Beyond the October Elections

October 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Moldova stands to advance its path towards European integration in the upcoming October 2024 presidential election and referendum, but Moldova will likely remain a battleground state into the 2030s as Moldova's European Union (EU) membership negotiations continue. The possible reelection of pro-Western Moldovan President Maia Sandu and passing of the pro-EU referendum in October 2024 will not set Moldova's EU path in stone. The Kremlin has recently been trying to sabotage Moldova’s EU accession and destabilize Moldovan democracy and will continue these efforts in the coming decade.

Iran Update, October 14, 2024

October 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Hezbollah’s October 13 drone attack targeting an IDF base is likely part of an effort to impose costs on Israel as Hezbollah faces operational challenges in southern Lebanon.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 14, 2024

October 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov arrived in the People's Republic of China (PRC) for an official visit on October 14, highlighting continued Russia-PRC defense cooperation against the backdrop of bilateral naval exercises in the Pacific Ocean.

Iran Update, October 13, 2024

October 13, 2024 - ISW Press

The United States deployed a Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) anti-missile system and US military personnel to operate the system to Israel on October 13 to bolster Israeli air defenses following the April 13 and October 1 Iranian attacks on Israel. The THAAD system is a “ground-based interceptor designed to shoot down ballistic missiles.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13, 2024

October 13, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces have recently resumed tactical offensive attacks in the Donetsk-Zaporizhia Oblast border area and have made tactical gains in localized assaults, but this activity so far does not appear to be a part of a larger operational offensive effort to support the wider Russian offensive operation in western Donetsk Oblast.

Iran Update, October 12, 2024

October 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Lebanese Hezbollah is falsely presenting Israeli ground operations as a failure in order to degrade Israeli will and underscore Hezbollah’s own resilience in the face of massive Hezbollah losses since mid-September. Hezbollah claimed that Israeli forces have failed to take control of any tactically significant hills or ridgelines in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah asserted that Israeli forces have only advanced to the outskirts of Lebanese towns and are using propaganda images to misrepresent military successes. Geolocated footage and commercially available satellite imagery show Israeli forces are operating in the center of southern Lebanese towns, however.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12, 2024

October 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces are reportedly relying on illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC) in Ukraine as part of an overarching effort to reach technological parity with Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian military personnel operating in Donetsk Oblast told the Washington Post in an article published on October 12 that Starlink terminals have increasingly appeared at Russian frontline positions and that the illicitly obtained technology is helping Russian forces fix persisting issues with combat coordination and communications while improving the precision of Russian tactical fires.

Iran Update, October 11, 2024

October 11, 2024 - ISW Press

The IDF 91st Division has seized terrain in an unspecified area of southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah direct fire attacks into Israel, supporting the stated Israeli war aim of returning Israeli civilians to the north.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 11, 2024

October 11, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces intensified their ongoing effort to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast around the evening of October 10 and have recently advanced further into the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast while reportedly eliminating almost the entirety of the smaller Ukrainian salient in Glushkovsky Raion.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, October 11, 2024

October 11, 2024 - ISW Press

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) accused Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) President Lai Ching-te on October 10 of promoting separatism and inciting cross-strait confrontation in his National Day speech.

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