Publications

Iran Update, October 12, 2024

October 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Lebanese Hezbollah is falsely presenting Israeli ground operations as a failure in order to degrade Israeli will and underscore Hezbollah’s own resilience in the face of massive Hezbollah losses since mid-September. Hezbollah claimed that Israeli forces have failed to take control of any tactically significant hills or ridgelines in southern Lebanon. Hezbollah asserted that Israeli forces have only advanced to the outskirts of Lebanese towns and are using propaganda images to misrepresent military successes. Geolocated footage and commercially available satellite imagery show Israeli forces are operating in the center of southern Lebanese towns, however.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 12, 2024

October 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces are reportedly relying on illicitly obtained Starlink terminals to improve combat coordination and the effectiveness of their tactical reconnaissance strike complex (TRSC) in Ukraine as part of an overarching effort to reach technological parity with Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian military personnel operating in Donetsk Oblast told the Washington Post in an article published on October 12 that Starlink terminals have increasingly appeared at Russian frontline positions and that the illicitly obtained technology is helping Russian forces fix persisting issues with combat coordination and communications while improving the precision of Russian tactical fires.

Iran Update, October 11, 2024

October 11, 2024 - ISW Press

The IDF 91st Division has seized terrain in an unspecified area of southern Lebanon to prevent Hezbollah direct fire attacks into Israel, supporting the stated Israeli war aim of returning Israeli civilians to the north.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 11, 2024

October 11, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian forces intensified their ongoing effort to dislodge Ukrainian forces from Kursk Oblast around the evening of October 10 and have recently advanced further into the main Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast while reportedly eliminating almost the entirety of the smaller Ukrainian salient in Glushkovsky Raion.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, October 11, 2024

October 11, 2024 - ISW Press

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) accused Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan) President Lai Ching-te on October 10 of promoting separatism and inciting cross-strait confrontation in his National Day speech.

Iran Update, October 10, 2024

October 10, 2024 - ISW Press

Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi threatened senior Saudi officials, warning that the Axis of Resistance would attack Saudi energy assets and infrastructure if Saudi Arabia supports an Israeli attack on Iran, according to anonymous Iranian officials speaking to Reuters

Africa File, October 10, 2024: AUSSOM Challenges; Fano Counteroffensive; DRC Attacks FDLR; Mali’s Northern Challenges; Togo Border Pressure

October 10, 2024 - ISW Press

The FARDC and allied militias launched an offensive operation on September 26 against a Rwandan rebel group in eastern DRC. The Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) may have launched the offensive against the Forces démocratiques de libération du Rwanda (FDLR) to advance ongoing peace talks aiming to end the conflict in the eastern DRC among the DRC, Rwanda, and their proxies. An anti-FDLR offensive has been a key Rwandan demand in peace talks because Rwanda’s Tutsi-dominated government views the FDLR as a threat.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 10, 2024

October 10, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces reportedly struck a Shahed drone storage facility in Krasnodar Krai and an ammunition warehouse in the Republic of Adygea on October 9 and 10.

Iran Update, October 9, 2024

October 9, 2024 - ISW Press

Israeli leaders have continued deliberating over how to respond to the Iranian ballistic missile attack on Israel on October 1. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu met with the Israeli Security Cabinet to discuss potential Israeli responses on October 8 and will meet with the cabinet again for further discussion on October 10.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 9, 2024

October 9, 2024 - ISW Press

The Russian military command has likely ordered Russian forces to conduct a relatively high tempo of mechanized assaults in Ukraine to pursue significant tactical advances before muddy ground conditions in Fall 2024 constrain mechanized maneuver.

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