Publications

Russia or the West: The Stakes in Georgia’s Election

October 21, 2024 - ISW Press

The Kremlin will likely seek to influence the October 2024 Georgian parliamentary elections to help secure a Georgian Dream Party victory in order to derail Georgia's Euro-Atlantic Integration efforts. The Kremlin likely hopes to seize on Georgian Dream's increasing pro-Russia position to facilitate long-term hybrid efforts to assert control over Georgia and the South Caucasus and diminish Western influence in the region.

Iran Update, October 20, 2024

October 20, 2024 - ISW Press

Palestinian fighters killed an IDF brigade commander in Jabalia, northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian fighters recently detonated a pre-planted improvised explosive device (IED), killing IDF 401st Armored Brigade Commander Colonel Ehsan Daqsa.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 20, 2024

October 20, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted drone strikes against the Lipetsk-2 Air Base near Lipetsk City and Russian state-owned defense enterprise Sverdlov in Dzerzhinsk, Nizhny Novgorod Oblast on the night of October 19 to 20.

Iran Update, October 19, 2024

October 19, 2024 - ISW Press

Hezbollah likely conducted a drone attack targeting Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s residence in Caesarea, Israel, on October 19. Three drones crossed into Israeli territory from Lebanon on October 19. The IDF said that one of the drones "hit a building“ in Caesarea with no casualties. Israeli residents reported hearing a large explosion following the drone’s impact. Neither Netanyahu nor his wife were at the residence at the time of the impact, according to the Prime Minister’s Office. Leaked images of the residence show damage to the side of a building. Netanyahu warned in a statement that the Iranian-backed groups that tried to ”assassinate” him made a ”grave mistake.”

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 19, 2024

October 19, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian drones reportedly struck the "Kremniy El" microelectronic plant in Bryansk City on the night of October 18 to 19. Russian opposition outlet Astra reported on October 19 that Ukrainian drones struck the plant and noted that "Kremniy El" is one of Russia's largest microelectronic manufacturers and that the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) is one of the company's main customers.

Iran Update, October 18, 2024

October 18, 2024 - ISW Press

The IDF Chief of Staff estimated that Israeli forces have killed at least 1,500 Hezbollah fighters since beginning operations against the group, which is consistent with CTP-ISW estimates.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 18, 2024

October 18, 2024 - ISW Press

South Korea's National Intelligence Service reported that North Korea transferred roughly 1,500 North Korean special forces to eastern Russia, where they are reportedly training before deploying to participate in Russia's war against Ukraine.

Sinwar’s Death Will Not End Israeli Operations in the Gaza Strip

October 18, 2024 - ISW Press

The death of Hamas leader Yahya Sinwar will not end the operation against Hamas in the Gaza Strip. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to trigger a rethink within Hamas about its basic strategy, which is to survive the war and secure a ceasefire that results in a total Israeli withdrawal.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, October 18, 2024

October 18, 2024 - ISW Press

The PRC launched a large-scale military exercise around Taiwan in response to Taiwan President Lai Ching-te’s National Day speech. It framed Lai’s speech as a new level of “provocation” even though the speech was more restrained than Lai’s inaugural address. The PRC was likely planning a strong military reaction regardless of the content of Lai’s speech.

Iran Update, October 17, 2024

October 17, 2024 - ISW Press

Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Yahya Sinwar in Rafah, southern Gaza Strip on October 16. Sinwar’s death is unlikely to change Hamas’ maximalist negotiating position meaningfully.

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