Publications

Hiding Russia’s Weakness

May 9, 2025 - ISW Press

The Kremlin is projecting the narrative of a powerful Russia and a powerful Russian President Vladimir Putin to conceal the real weaknesses and limitations of Russia's capabilities and distract from Russia's battlefield failures. Putin has long held that the perception of weakness can be lethal in a system built on the premise of strength — a principle that applies to the stability of his regime as well as to Russia's position in the world.  The world should not take the Kremlin's displays at face value, but should look past them to the realities of Russia and this war.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, May 9, 2025

May 9, 2025 - ISW Press

Petitions to recall legislators from the opposition Kuomintang (KMT) have continued to advance in Taiwan. Around 30 KMT legislators will likely face recall votes in the coming weeks, giving the ruling Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) an opportunity to regain control of the Taiwanese legislature.

Africa File, May 8, 2025: RSF Drone Strikes on Port Sudan; Iran Exports Regime Security to Africa; Burkina Faso Looks for Additional Partners

May 9, 2025 - ISW Press

The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked Port Sudan with drones for the first time. These operations are part of the RSF campaign to disrupt Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) governance and logistics.

Iran Update, May 8, 2025

May 8, 2025 - ISW Press

Houthi Supreme Leader Abdulmalik al Houthi acknowledged the US–Houthi ceasefire but reiterated that the Houthi movement will continue to support Hamas against Israel. Abdulmalik’s statements demonstrate how the Houthis view the Red Sea attack campaign as one element of a broader Houthi strategic effort to pressure Israel to end its campaign in the Gaza Strip.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 8, 2025

May 8, 2025 - ISW Press

The Kremlin continues to seize on the Russian mythos of the Second World War ahead of Russia's May 9 Victory Day holiday to set informational conditions to justify a prolonged war in Ukraine and future aggression against NATO to Russian society

Russian Occupation Update, May 8, 2025

May 8, 2025 - ISW Press

Russia is inventorying real estate in occupied Ukraine in order to seize property from Ukrainian residents, likely in part to facilitate the transfer of Russian citizens to occupied territories.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 7, 2025

May 7, 2025 - ISW Press

US officials acknowledged Russia's continued intransigence toward any ceasefire agreement in Ukraine while reiterating that Ukraine remains committed to US President Donald Trump's proposed comprehensive 30-day ceasefire. US Special Envoy to Ukraine General Keith Kellogg stated on May 6 that Russian President Vladimir Putin's refusal to agree to a 30-day ceasefire is the main impediment to  establishing peace in Ukraine and that Russia will be hurt if the parties do not agree to a comprehensive ceasefire, as "Russia is not winning the war."

Iran Update, May 7, 2025

May 7, 2025 - ISW Press

The Houthis will likely exploit the ceasefire with the United States to reconstitute themselves while continuing to target Israel. US airstrikes from March 15 to May 5 targeted Houthi weapons and ammunition depots, sites related to missiles and drones, and Houthi leadership. It is unclear how much the US airstrikes degraded Houthi capabilities, however. A Saudi news outlet said that some US assessments report that US airstrikes destroyed 80 percent of the Houthis’ missile stockpile.

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update May 7, 2025

May 7, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian forces are integrating responsive tactical innovations among frontline Russian units, indicating that the Russian military is learning modern ground warfare lessons that it intends to carry on beyond the war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, May 6, 2025

May 6, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces continued limited attacks across the international border near Tetkino and Novyi Put, Kursk Oblast. Russian milbloggers claimed on May 6 that Russian forces repelled the Ukrainian attacks near Novyi Put and Volfino (southwest of Glushkovo) and that fighting continued near the railway station in southern Tetkino (southwest of Glushkovo). Several Russian milbloggers claimed that Ukrainian forces seized up to two streets in southwestern Tetkino, but ISW has not observed confirmation of this claim.

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