Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 12, 2024

July 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Western and US officials reportedly assess that Ukrainian forces will continue to be on the defensive for the next six months and will not be able to conduct a large-scale counteroffensive operation until 2025.

Iran Update, July 12, 2024

July 12, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas continued to promote its postwar plan for a technocratic government to jointly rule the Gaza Strip and the West Bank. Hamas is content with this plan because it expects to maintain a monopoly on violence in the Gaza Strip, thereby controlling the government or evading its rule.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, July 12, 2024

July 12, 2024 - ISW Press

The PLA significantly increased its daily incursions into Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in July to expand the PRC’s coercive pressure on the ROC as “punishment” for the election of ROC President Lai Ching-te. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) reported 232 ADIZ violations by PLA aircraft in the first ten days of July, more than the totals for most months on record.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 11, 2024

July 11, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian authorities reportedly attempted to assassinate leading figures in the European defense industrial base (DIB), likely as part of Russian efforts to disrupt and deter Western aid to Ukraine and Russia's wider efforts to destabilize NATO members. CNN reported on July 11 that five US and Western officials stated that US intelligence uncovered a Kremlin plan in early 2024 to assassinate German arms manufacturer Rheinmetall CEO Armin Papperger. US intelligence reportedly informed the German government, which was able to foil the plot.

Iran Update, July 11, 2024

July 11, 2024 - ISW Press

International mediators are reportedly considering using 2,500 US-trained Palestinian Authority (PA) supporters from the Gaza Strip as an interim governing force in the Gaza Strip. It remains unclear how the United States would train the Gaza Strip–based PA supporters.

Africa File, July 11, 2024: Sahelian Juntas vs. ECOWAS; US Base in Côte d’Ivoire

July 11, 2024 - ISW Press

The central Sahelian juntas in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger established a confederation that deepens their break with West Africa’s ECOWAS and aims to strengthen their domestic and regional credibility. This split from the main West Africa political and economic bloc, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), would undermine ECOWAS’s legitimacy by hampering regional economic and security integration and democratic development.

Iran Update, July 10, 2024

July 10, 2024 - ISW Press

Palestinian militias, including Hamas, are continuing to coordinate militarily and politically with Iranian-backed Iraqi militias. P

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 10, 2024

July 10, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian First Deputy Defense Minister Lieutenant General Ivan Havrylyuk stressed that robust Western security assistance will be crucial for Ukraine's ability to contest and seize the battlefield initiative.

Iran Update, July 9, 2024

July 9, 2024 - ISW Press

Hamas is threatening to end ceasefire negotiations with Israel in response to Israeli raids targeting Hamas fighters in Gaza City. This effort may seek to trigger increased international pressure on Israel to stop the raids. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh said on July 8 that continued Israeli raids in Gaza City and Rafah would end the current Israel-Hamas ceasefire negotiations. Israel launched a raid in Tal al Hawa in southwest Gaza City on July 8 to target Hamas fighters, dismantle militia infrastructure, and destroy weapons caches.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 9, 2024

July 9, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin and Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi issued a joint statement on July 9 about strengthening mutually beneficial political, economic, energy, and military-technical cooperation between Russia and India. Modi met with Putin in Moscow on July 8 and 9 to discuss furthering Russo-Indian relations, which Putin referred to as a "particularly privileged strategic partnership." The joint statement specifically pledged to increase joint production of spare components and parts for servicing Russian-made military equipment and weapons in India, agreed to establish a working group on technological cooperation, and planned to reorient the existing Russo-Indian Intergovernmental Commission on Military and Military-Technical Cooperation on joint research, development, and production of advanced defense technologies and systems.

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