Publications

Wagner Out, Africa Corps In: Africa File, June 12, 2025

June 12, 2025 - ISW Press

The Russian Wagner Group formally withdrew from Mali, as the Kremlin continues to transition control of its military operations in Africa to the Ministry of Defense–backed Africa Corps. The shift to more overt Russian state military involvement in Africa creates myriad domestic and geopolitical risks for the Kremlin. Russia may accordingly adapt its engagement in Africa to the detriment of its current and prospective partnerships.

Russian Occupation Update, June 12, 2025

June 12, 2025 - ISW Press

Occupied Crimea is poised to face a severe water crisis in the coming months, a crisis that the Russian occupation of Crimea has precipitated and which ongoing Russian mismanagement and resource misallocation will exacerbate.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 11, 2025

June 11, 2025 - ISW Press

US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth stated on June 10 that the United States intends to reduce its budget for the purchase of weapons for Ukraine in 2026.

Iran Update, June 11, 2025

June 11, 2025 - ISW Press

The United States authorized the voluntary departure of US military dependents and began preparations for a partial US Embassy Baghdad evacuation amid new pessimism about US-Iran nuclear talks.

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update June 11, 2025

June 11, 2025 - ISW Press

Ukrainian officials warned that the People's Republic of China (PRC) is increasingly enabling Russia to improve and grow its drone production. Ukraine's Foreign Intelligence Service (SZRU) Spokesperson Oleh Aleksandrov told Politico in an interview published on June 5 that Chinese manufacturers are providing Russian developers with hardware, electronics, navigation, optical, and telemetry systems, engines, microcircuits, processor modules, antenna field systems, and control boards.

Adversary Entente Task Force Update, June 11, 2025

June 11, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to facilitate the United States-Iran nuclear negotiations. Putin likely seeks to portray Russia as a useful collaborator and partner that the United States needs to achieve certain global outcomes. It is far from clear, however, that Russia has the leverage to help secure a nuclear agreement.

Iran Update, June 10, 2025

June 10, 2025 - ISW Press

The Syrian transitional government has quickly responded to several false reports of insurgent activity in coastal Syria over the last week. The government’s rapid response demonstrates that the government remains concerned about violence in coastal Syria despite low levels of Alawite insurgency activity there. Multiple factors, including a lack of Alawite support for insurgent groups, government pressure, and poorly executed insurgent operations, have probably contributed to the decrease in insurgent activity in coastal areas.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 10, 2025

June 10, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be switching between rhetoric focused on Russian ethnic nationalism and Russian multinationalism, but remains committed to promoting anti-Western sentiment and the militarization of Russia's youth. Putin held a meeting with the Security Council on June 10 that largely focused on the unification of the peoples of Russia and the use of military-patriotic youth programs and Russian government initiatives to promote Russian patriotism.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, June 9, 2025

June 9, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian forces recently advanced to the Dnipropetrovsk-Donetsk administrative border as Kremlin officials continued to demonstrate that Russia has wider territorial ambitions in Ukraine beyond Luhansk, Donetsk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea.

Iran Update, June 9, 2025

June 9, 2025 - ISW Press

Iran continues to signal that it will reject the recent US nuclear proposal. The United States recently sent a proposal to Iran that would require Iran to halt all uranium enrichment on Iranian soil after the establishment of a regional nuclear consortium. Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry Spokesperson Esmail Baghaei criticized the US proposal on June 9 and stated that Iran will soon present a counter-proposal via Oman.

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