Publications

Africa File, April 24, 2025: JNIM’s Growing Pressure on Benin; Turkey to Somalia; Salafi-Jihadi Cells Continue to Grow Across Nigeria

April 24, 2025 - ISW Press

Al Qaeda’s affiliate in the Sahel carried out its deadliest-ever attack in Benin as it continues to increase the lethality of its operations in Benin throughout 2025. The latest attacks are significantly more lethal despite no increase in frequency.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 23, 2025

April 23, 2025 - ISW Press

The United States reportedly recently presented Ukraine with a seven-point proposal to end the war in Ukraine in which the United States would recognize Crimea as part of Russia and allow Russian forces to continue to occupy significant parts of southern and eastern Ukraine. Available reporting about the contents of the US proposal suggests that it marks a sudden and substantial change in the Trump administration's strategy for ending the war in Ukraine.

Iran Update, April 23, 2025

April 23, 2025 - ISW Press

A Salafi-jihadi group ideologically close to the Islamic State (IS) is conducting extrajudicial killings against Syrians perceived to be tied to the now-deposed Bashar al Assad regime. The group—Saraya Ansar al Sunnah—called for the killing of an Assad informant in Aleppo on April 13 and has claimed two killings targeting informants since then.

Russian Force Generation and Technological Adaptations Update April 23, 2025

April 23, 2025 - ISW Press

The Kremlin appears to be increasingly concerned with the Russian military's ability to retain forces in the event of demobilization following a ceasefire or a negotiated peace. Russian propagandist Anastasiya Kashevarova claimed on April 17 that the Kremlin assigned Russia’s military chiefs of staff in early April to survey contract servicemen and mobilized personnel about their intent to reenlist in the Russian military should Russia complete its war in Ukraine.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 22, 2025

April 22, 2025 - ISW Press

The Financial Times (FT) reported that Russian President Vladimir Putin is willing to end the war in Ukraine on the current frontlines. Kremlin officials, including Putin, have repeatedly and explicitly emphasized that Russia maintains its territorial demands over all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, however, while also publicly signaling that Russia has greater territorial ambitions in Ukraine beyond these four oblasts.

Iran Update, April 22, 2025

April 22, 2025 - ISW Press

Unspecified Iranian sources told a Qatari-owned, London-based outlet on April 22 that the US-Iran nuclear talks are progressing “beyond belief.” Iran could calculate that by framing the talks as positive, even if the reality does not match, Iran could delay a US or Israeli strike on Iran’s nuclear program or the imposition of snapback sanctions on Iran.

Iran Update April 21, 2025

April 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Iran and the United States held a second round of nuclear talks in Rome on April 19.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 21, 2025

April 21, 2025 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin rejected Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky's April 20 proposal for a temporary moratorium on long-range strikes against civilian infrastructure, declined Zelensky's offer to extend Putin's own 30-hour Easter truce, and attempted to justify recent Russian strikes against civilian targets in Ukraine.

Russian Occupation Update, April 21, 2025

April 21, 2025 - ISW Press

A recent BBC Verify investigation highlights the scale of Russia’s property seizures in occupied Mariupol, supporting ISW’s assessment of how Russian occupation officials are using bureaucratic tools to exert control over occupied Ukraine. The investigation, published on April 17, found that Russian occupation authorities have identified at least 5,700 Mariupol homes for seizure, most of which belong to individuals who either fled or died during Russia’s 2022 siege of the city.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, April 20, 2025

April 20, 2025 - ISW Press

The snap Russian-proposed Easter truce underscores the necessity that the text of any ceasefire or peace agreement be publicly available, formally agreed to in advance by all parties, and include robust monitoring mechanisms.

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