Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 29, 2024

October 29, 2024 - ISW Press

The rate of Russian advances in Ukraine has increased in recent weeks but remains slow and consistent with positional warfare rather than with rapid mechanized maneuver—emphasizing how generally stagnant Russian advances have been after over two and half years of war. Recent Western reporting linking the Russian rate of advance in September 2024 with Russian advances at the start of the war is highly misleading.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 28, 2024

October 28, 2024 - ISW Press

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte announced that South Korean intelligence officials shared evidence with NATO officials on October 28 that North Korean units are operating in Kursk Oblast.

Possible Russian Gains in Georgia and Moldova

October 27, 2024 - ISW Press

The Kremlin continues to pursue its longstanding hybrid warfare efforts to regain effective control of the territories of the former Soviet Union even as it seeks to gain control of Ukraine through military force.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 27, 2024

October 27, 2024 - ISW Press

Russia's economy and war effort is coming under increasing strain, which will pose increasingly acute challenges to Russian President Vladimir Putin's ability to sustain the war over the long term.

Pro-Russia Georgian Dream Party Likely Wins Parliamentary Elections

October 26, 2024 - ISW Press

Georgia’s ruling Georgian Dream party has likely won a simple majority in the Georgian parliamentary election held on October 26, 2024, according to preliminary results.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 26, 2024

October 26, 2024 - ISW Press

Bloomberg reported on October 25, citing South Korean intelligence documents, that a second group of North Korean soldiers will soon deploy to Russia.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 25, 2024

October 25, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky warned that Russia will imminently deploy North Korean forces to unspecified combat zones on October 27 and 28, as Russian and North Korean officials continued to issue vague yet suggestive statements regarding the possible presence of North Korean troops in Russia.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 24, 2024

October 24, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin failed to deny the presence of North Korean military personnel in Russia on October 24, amid official Ukrainian reports that the first North Korean military units arrived in Kursk Oblast on October 23. Ukraine's Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on October 24 that the first units of North Korean personnel arrived in Kursk Oblast on October 23.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 23, 2024

October 23, 2024 - ISW Press

The adoption of the Kazan Declaration on the second day of the BRICS summit in Kazan, Republic of Tatarstan on October 23 demonstrated that Russia has not yet secured the international support nor created the alternative security structure that the Kremlin desires.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 22, 2024

October 22, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian forces conducted a series of drone strikes on the night of October 21 to 22 targeting distilleries in Russia that reportedly manufacture products for the Russian military. Tula Oblast Governor Dmitry Milyaev claimed that a Ukrainian drone strike damaged distilleries in Yefremov and Luzhlovsky.

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