Publications

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 11, 2023

December 11, 2023 - ISW Press

The Russian Central Election Commission (CEC) announced on December 11 that Russia will conduct voting for the 2024 presidential election in occupied Ukraine, likely in an attempt to legitimize the Russian occupation and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s rule. The CEC reported that it made the decision to hold the election in occupied territories – all of which except Crimea are under martial law – in consultations with the Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD), the Federal Security Service (FSB), and occupation authorities. Russian law notably requires the CEC to consult with these agencies when considering holding elections in areas under martial law, including occupied Ukraine. Russia will likely use the March 2024 presidential election to further establish a veneer of legitimacy for its occupation of Ukraine as it has done during the illegal 2022 annexation referenda and the 2023 regional elections. Russian CEC Chairperson Ella Pamfilova stated on December 7 that elections in occupied Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts “will differ somewhat” in procedure from elections in Russia and occupied Crimea. The CEC will likely use these differing procedures to falsify votes in Putin’s favor and claim a high voter turnout while falsely portraying occupied Ukraine’s participation in the election as legitimate to the international community.

Iran Update, December 10, 2023

December 10, 2023 - ISW Press

Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli forces on the Israeli forward line of advance in Khan Younis on December 10. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued targeting Palestinian militia sites in Khan Younis, Jabalia, Shujaiya, and Beit Hanoun. Israeli forces attacked underground tunnels in Khan Younis and conducted airstrikes to support ground maneuvers. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that its fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting Israeli forces northeast of Khan Younis. The militia claimed to kill 13 Israeli soldiers in the EFP attack and two more soldiers with small arms afterward the initial explosion. EFPs are particularly lethal improvised explosive devices designed to penetrate armored vehicles, such as main battle tanks. This attack is consistent with the shift of Hamas and other Palestinian militias using increasingly sophisticated tactics since the humanitarian pause expired on December 1.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 10, 2023

December 10, 2023 - ISW Press

Russian Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Maria Zakharova emphasized that Russia's maximalist objectives in Ukraine have not changed, repeating the Kremlin’s demand for full Ukrainian political capitulation and Kyiv’s acceptance of Russia’s military and territorial demands rather than suggesting any willingness to negotiate seriously. In a written interview with AFP on December 9, Zakharova claimed that a "comprehensive, sustainable, and fair resolution" in Ukraine can only happen if the West stops "pumping up the Armed Forces of Ukraine with weapons" and that Ukraine surrenders Russia’s claimed Ukrainian territory and "withdraws its troops," presumably from Ukrainian territory Russia claims to have annexed. Zakharova emphasized the Kremlin's longstanding claim that Russia invaded Ukraine for "de-militarization," "denazification," and to "ensure the rights of Russian-speaking citizens" in Ukraine. The Kremlin has consistently used the term “denazification” as code for the removal of the elected government of Ukraine and its replacement by some government the Kremlin regards as acceptable—i.e., regime change.

Iran Update, December 9, 2023

December 9, 2023 - ISW Press

Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. Israeli forces located several tunnel shafts and a Hamas military headquarters as they advanced in Khan Younis. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) engaged three Palestinian fighters as they emerged from a tunnel in central Khan Younis and fired a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG).Hamas maintains an extensive tunnel system across the Gaza Strip, which Israeli forces have destroyed as they have advanced. Israeli forces also raided a mosque from which Hamas fighters were operating. The IDF said the Hamas fighters detonated an IED near Israeli forces.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 9, 2023

December 9, 2023 - ISW Press

Russian forces have likely committed to offensive operations in multiple sectors of the front during a period of the most challenging weather of the fall-winter season in an effort to seize and retain the initiative prior to the Russian presidential elections in March 2024. Russian forces are currently pursuing offensive efforts along much of the frontline in Ukraine, particularly along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and towards Avdiivka as Ukrainian military officials have repeatedly noted, and Russian forces are also conducting continuous ground attacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast. The current pace of fighting across the entire frontline in Ukraine is generally consistent with ISW's standing assessment that Russian forces have been trying to regain the theater-level initiative since at least mid-November 2023. Recent Ukrainian military official statements further suggest that Russian forces have succeeded in seizing the initiative along the Kharkiv-Luhansk Oblast border, near Bakhmut, and along the Avdiivka-Donetsk City axis, while Ukrainian forces maintain the initiative in key areas of southern Ukraine, as evidenced by continued Ukrainian counterattacks in western Zaporizhia Oblast and the sustained, larger-than-usual Ukrainian presence in east bank Kherson Oblast.

Iran Update, December 8, 2023

December 8, 2023 - ISW Press

Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted an indirect fire attack targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 for the first time since 2021, marking a notable escalation in Iranian efforts to expel US forces from Iraq. An unidentified US military official reported that unidentified militants fired multiple rockets at the US Embassy in Baghdad and Forward Operating Base (FOB) Union III, landing near the embassy’s gates and in the river nearby.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, December 8, 2023

December 8, 2023 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin announced his presidential bid for 2024 on December 8 in an obviously staged effort to seem that he was running at the request of Russian servicemen. Putin announced that he would run for president in the 2024 elections in conversation with Russian military personnel after the presentation of Gold Star medals in the Grand Kremlin Palace on December 8.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, December 7, 2023

December 8, 2023 - ISW Press

KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-ih gained significant support since November 24 and closed the gap with DPP presidential candidate Lai Ching-te, who leads in the polls. Taiwan’s presidential election settled into a three-way race last week after Lai, Hou, and TPP candidate Ko Wen-je registered their candidacies during the week of November 20. Hou and Ko registered and announced their respective running mates on November 24, the last day for registration, after the collapse of their eleventh-hour negotiations to form a joint ticket to challenge Lai. Polling data since the joint ticket collapse shows Hou Yu-ih’s support has risen considerably.

The Order of Battle of Hamas’ Izz al Din al Qassem Brigades, Part 1: North and Central Gaza

December 8, 2023 - ISW Press

The al Qassem Brigades are the military component of Hamas and the means by which Hamas seeks to destroy the Israeli state and form an Islamic state in Palestine. Hamas is a highly organized group that views terrorism and military action as the only method through which it can destroy the Israeli state. The al Qassem Brigades are commanded by Mohammad Deif and are subordinated to the overall Hamas political leadership responsible to Ismail Haniyeh. They coordinate closely with the Hamas political leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar. Hamas defines itself as a "Palestinian national liberation and resistance movement” intent on establishing an Islamic Palestinian state that stretches “from the River Jordan...to the Mediterranean and from Ras al Naqurah...to Umm al Rashrash.” It is also a member of Iran’s ”Axis of Resistance,” the regional coalition of states and groups that Tehran has built as part of its effort to destroy Israel and expel the United States from the Middle East. Hamas states that "armed resistance” is a "strategic choice” to protect the Palestinian people and rejects "any attempt to undermine [Hamas’] resistance.” Hamas is fighting alongside other Palestinian resistance groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, with which it engages in operational and tactical coordination.

Iran Update, December 7, 2023

December 7, 2023 - ISW Press

Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to try to expel US forces from Iraq. Forcing the removal of the US military is one of Iran’s most important strategic objectives in the Middle East. CTP-ISW previously assessed that the dozens of Iranian-backed militia attacks on US military positions in recent weeks have been meant to impose a cost on the United States for supporting Israel while also eroding American willingness to remain militarily in Iraq and Syria. Iranian and Axis of Resistance leaders are operating on the theory that relatively low levels of militant pressure gradually diminish the willingness of the US political establishment to sustain deployments in the Middle East.

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