Publications

Iran Update, November 22, 2023

November 22, 2023 - ISW Press

Israel and Hamas have agreed to a four-day humanitarian pause in fighting. Hamas official Mousa Abu Marzouk said the pause will begin at 0300 EST on Thursday, November 23. The Israeli National Security Director said that hostages will not be released before Friday, however.It is therefore unclear when the pause will begin. Statements from Israel and Hamas acknowledged a prisoner/hostage swap in return for a four-day pause in the fighting in the Gaza Strip with different levels of detail. The Israeli government’s official statement said that 50 women and children would be released by Hamas over four days at a rate of at least 10 per day. Hamas’ political wing issued a more detailed statement and said that it would release 50 Israeli women and children under the age of 19 in exchange for Israel releasing 150 Palestinian women and children under the age of 19. Israel’s statement presents the opportunity for the extension of the pause, stipulating that for each additional 10 hostages Hamas released, a day would be added to the pause. Hamas’ statement did not mention this aspect of the agreement.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 22, 2023

November 22, 2023 - ISW Press

Russian President Vladimir Putin reframed the Kremlin’s stance on the Israeli-Hamas war to a much more anti-Israel position in an attempt to demonstrate the supposed hypocrisy of Western condemnations of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Putin stated that attendees of the G20 summit who expressed shock at the continued Russian war in Ukraine should instead be “shocked” by the “bloody” 2014 Euromaidan Revolution in Ukraine and the subsequent war that the “Kyiv regime waged against its own people” in Donbas and by the “extermination of the civilian population in Palestine, in the Gaza sector.” Putin’s November 22 statement on the Israel-Hamas war referring to the “extermination of the civilian population of Palestine” was a departure from previous Kremlin framing that largely focused on calling for peace and claiming that the Israel-Hamas war will distract from the provision of Western military aid to Ukraine. Putin’s November 22 framing of the Israeli-Hamas war continues to exploit that war to undermine Western support for Ukraine, as ISW has previously assessed, and also signals potentially increasing support for Iranian interests in the region and an increased willingness to antagonize Israel.

China-Taiwan Weekly Update, November 22, 2023 

November 22, 2023 - ISW Press

The TPP-KMT deal to form a joint presidential ticket broke down after the parties failed to reach a consensus on who would head the ticket. Ko Wen-je and KMT presidential candidate Hou Yu-Ih agreed on November 15 to form a joint presidential ticket to challenge DPP candidate Lai Ching-te. They agreed to use public opinion polls conducted from November 7-17 to determine which of them would lead the presidential ticket and to announce the results on November 18. The parties agreed to a point system in which a candidate would receive one “point” for each poll in which a ticket led by that candidate had more support against Lai than a ticket led by the other candidate. The deal included a concession by Ko that he would accept as a “loss” any poll result in which the difference between him and Hou fell within the margin of error. Disagreements over the definition of this “margin of error” led to disagreement on the outcome on November 18, however. The KMT claims Hou won 5 of the 6 polls, while the TPP claims Ko and Hou tied 3-3.

Iran Update, November 21, 2023

November 21, 2023 - ISW Press

Israel said its forces encircled Jabalia on the night of November 20-21 as Palestinian militias conducted attacks on the Israeli lines of advance. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on November 21 that the Israeli Air Force and artillery forces bombarded the Jabalia area north of Gaza city to “prepare” the battlefield. Israeli forces continued to engage Palestinian fighters on the northern outskirts of Jabalia near the Indonesian Hospital. Palestinian militias also resisted the IDF advance southwest of Jabalia near al Saftawi roundabout. The IDF said Hamas’ northern brigade maintains a command-and-control center and critical strongholds in Jabalia. The IDF released a map on November 13 showing elements of four Hamas battalions in Jabalia. The Israeli Army Radio reported that only two of the four Hamas battalions operating in Jabalia are "still functioning," implying that the other two are combat ineffective. The IDF told residents to evacuate from Jabalia, al Daraj, al Tuffah, and Shujaia neighborhoods on November 21.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 21, 2023

November 21, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to conduct offensive operations in eastern and southern Ukraine despite rainy and snowy weather conditions. Ukrainian Kherson Oblast Military Administration Advisor Serhiy Khlan stated on November 20 that Russian shelling of the west (right) bank of Kherson Oblast had decreased due to poor weather conditions. Ukrainian 14th Mechanized Brigade Spokesperson Nadiya Zamryha stated on November 21 that Russian forces continue to conduct assaults in the Kupyansk direction despite the snow and frost. Zamryha added that the number of Russian attacks will likely decrease due to weather conditions but that Russian forces will not stop offensive operations completely. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky emphasized the need to strengthen Ukrainian capabilities before the winter period during a meeting with US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin on November 20. Russian milbloggers claimed on November 20 and 21 that both Russian and Ukrainian forces are struggling to operate drones, including for artillery fire adjustment, in the poor weather conditions throughout the front. Russian milbloggers also claimed that muddy conditions are complicating vehicle movements but that both Ukrainian and Russian forces continue to maneuver and operate in all directions. ISW continues to assess that freezing weather conditions during the winter will likely prompt the resumption of more active combat operations, and ongoing rainy weather is unlikely to halt Ukrainian or Russian attacks.

The Chinese Communist Party's Theory of Hybrid Warfare

November 21, 2023 - ISW Press

Chinese Communist Party (CCP) military theorists frame hybrid warfare as how countries deploy all aspects of physical and non-physical state power, including civil society, to confront an adversary indirectly. They also view it as a means of confronting great powers within an interconnected and globalized world. Their framing presents hybrid warfare as a competition of holistic, comprehensive strength. The theorists use the concept to challenge the primacy of systems confrontation thought, which was the dominant CCP framework throughout the 2000s and early 2010s.

Iran Update, November 20, 2023

November 20, 2023 - ISW Press

Israeli forces advanced to the Indonesian Hospital in Beit Lahiya bordering northern Jabalia refugee camp on November 20 and clashed with Palestinian militia fighters along the western border of Jabalia refugee camp and neighborhood.

Hamas and other Palestinian militia fighters attacked the IDF behind the Israeli forward line of advance in the Zaytoun area in the middle of the Gaza Strip, which is consistent with the nature of clearing operations.

Palestinian militia fighters engaged Israeli forces in eight small arms clashes across the West Bank on November 20. Hamas and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine continue to call for attacks against Israeli soldiers and civilians in the West Bank.

The Islamic Resistance in Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claimed a one-way drone attack targeting US forces at Ain al Assad Airbase in Iraq on November 20.

Unspecified Iranian-backed militia leaders in Syria met to discuss plans for responding to US airstrikes in the region.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 20, 2023

November 20, 2023 - ISW Press

Russia appears to be employing a known hybrid warfare tactic to artificially create a migrant crisis on the Finnish border. Russia’s apparent hybrid warfare tactic on the Russian-Finnish border is similar to Russia’s and Belarus’ creation of a migrant crisis on the Polish border in 2021 and is likely similarly aimed at destabilizing NATO.

Iran Update, November 19, 2023

November 19, 2023 - ISW Press

The Washington Post reported on November 18 that Israel and Hamas are nearing an agreement for a five-day pause in fighting. Sources familiar with the emerging terms said that the US-brokered deal would free dozens of women and children held hostage in the Gaza Strip, according to the Washington Post report. The five-day pause would be the first sustained pause in conflict since the Israel–Hamas war began. The six-page set of written terms would require all parties to the conflict to freeze combat operations for at least five days while Palestinian militias release 50 or more hostages in small batches every 24 hours. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) estimated on November 17 that there are 237 hostages in the Gaza Strip. US Deputy National Security Adviser Jon Finer said on November 19 that negotiations to secure the release of hostages are closer than at any point since negotiations began. Qatar’s prime minister said there is "good progress” on the issue of releasing hostages.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 19, 2023

November 19, 2023 - ISW Press

Ukrainian and Russian forces are continuing combat operations in eastern and southern Ukraine, although the rainy weather will likely continue to slow the pace of combat operations until winter conditions fully set in. A Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces continue to defend against a strong group of Russian forces attacking near Avdiivka and that Ukrainian forces maintain the initiative in southern Ukraine. The milblogger added that it is premature to declare any Russian victories to avoid creating any false impressions about the situation on the battlefield. Another Russian milblogger observed that poor weather is impeding the use of armored vehicles in western Zaporizhia Oblast but that Ukrainian forces are still attacking Russian positions with infantry units. The United Kingdon (UK) Ministry of Defense (MoD) assessed on November 18 that neither side has achieved any substantial progress in the Kupyansk and Avdiivka directions, or in east (left) bank Kherson Oblast — where the most intense battles are ongoing.

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