Russian Main Effort: Eastern Ukraine

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #1 – Kharkiv Oblast

Russian objective: Push Ukrainian forces back from the international border to create a defensible buffer zone with Belgorod Oblast and approach to within tube artillery range of Kharkiv City

Russian forces continued offensive operations in northern Kharkiv Oblast on August 15 and 16 but did not make confirmed advances.[17] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on August 16 that Russian forces seized Kudiivka (north of Kharkiv City).[18] Russian sources attempted to frame the alleged seizure of Kudiivka as the “gateway” to Kharkiv City as the settlement lies on the shortest route to the city along the E-105 Kharkiv-Belgorod City highway.[19] Russian forces have been advancing along other similarly direct highways to Kharkiv City from the neighboring Lyptsi direction since Russian forces launched their offensive in this area in May 2024. A source reporting on the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces refuted the Russian MoD’s claim, stating that Russian forces are fighting within Kudiivka but have not established any strongholds.[20] The source added that there are Russian forces west of Kudiivka cut off from the main grouping.

Russian fire control over major roads in northern Kharkiv Oblast is complicating civilian evacuations.  Vovchansk City Military Administration Head Tamaz Hambarashvili stated on August 16 that there are still 300 people living in Vovchanskyi Hromada, most of whom are located south of the frontline.[21] Hambrashvili stated that Russian forces are conducting constant drone strikes and expanding the contested “gray zones” in the area. Hambarashvili reported that Russian forces control all the ground lines of communications (GLOCs) such that only Ukrainian forces can conduct evacuations.

Sources continue to report how the pattern of lying about Russian advances within the Russian chain of command is leading to losses on the ground. A source reporting on the Russian Northern Grouping of Forces claimed on August 16 that Vilcha (northeast of Kharkiv City) is currently a contested “gray zone” even though Russian authorities claimed that Russian forces seized the settlement in December 2025.[22] The source claimed that Russian forces now enter Vilcha “practically blind” under Ukrainian artillery and drone fire as nobody kept a reliable map of the minefields that both sides laid in the months after its claimed seizure.

Russian forces continue to strike religious infrastructure in Ukraine.[23] The Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church Cathedral of Saint Nicholas the Wonderworker reported on August 15 that shrapnel from a recent Russian missile and drone strike against Kharkiv City damaged the windows and surrounding areas of the church.[24]

Russian forces continued limited offensive operations in the Velykyi Burluk direction on August 15 and 16 but did not advance as Ukrainian forces counterattacked.[25]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #2 – Oskil River

Russian objective: Cross the Oskil River in Kharkiv Oblast and push westward into eastern Kharkiv Oblast and northern Donetsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Kupyansk direction on August 15 and 16 but did not advance.[26] A source reporting on the Russian Western Grouping of Forces claimed on August 16 that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in western Kupyansk on the town’s southern outskirts but that Russian forces control northern and eastern Kupyansk.[27]

A source reporting on the Russian Western Grouping of Forces claimed that Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Borova direction on August 16 as Ukrainian forces continued counterattacks near Ridkodub and Nove (both southeast of Borova).[28]

Russian Subordinate Main Effort #3 – Donetsk Oblast

Russian objective: Capture the entirety of Donetsk Oblast, the claimed territory of Russia’s proxies in Donbas, and advance into Dnipropetrovsk Oblast

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Slovyansk direction on August 15 and 16 but did not advance. [29]

Order of Battle: A source reporting on the Russian Western Grouping of Forces reported on August 16 that elements of the Russian 673rd Separate Anti-Aircraft Missile Battalion of the 144th Motorized Rifle Brigade (18th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are operating in the Lyman direction.[30] This is the first time ISW has observed this unit involved in combat operations in Ukraine.

Ukrainian forces recently cleared Russian infiltrators from an area in western Kostyantynivka. Geolocated footage published on August 15 shows Ukrainian forces operating in western Kostyantynivka – an area in which ISW previously observed a Russian infiltrator presence.[31] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed on August 16 that Russian forces seized Pershomarivka (north of Kostyantynivka and east of Kramatorsk).[32] A Russian milblogger claimed on August 16 that Russian forces crossed the Kazennyi Torets River southwest of Druzhkivka, likely to flank Druzhkivka from the west.[33]

Russian forces continue to intensify their glide bomb strikes against ground lines of communication (GLOCs) in the Fortress Belt to enable future offensive operations. Slovyansk City Military Administration Head Vadym Lyakh reported on August 16 that Russian forces continuously struck Slovyansk from the night of August 15 until late in the evening on August 16 with FAB-250 glide bombs, first-person view (FPV) drones, and Molniya-2 fixed-wing strike drones.[34] The Ukrainian State Emergency Service reported on August 16 that Russian forces struck residential parts of Slovyansk with glide bombs.[35] A Russian milblogger posted on August 16 footage purportedly showing the aftermath of a Russian glide bomb strike on the Novokramatorsk Machine Building Factory in Kramatorsk.[36] Another Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces are striking high-rise buildings in Druzhkivka with glide bombs and are intensifying their strikes on Ukrainian GLOCs leading to Kramatorsk in order to increase pressure on the Kramatorsk-Slovyansk agglomeration.[37] Russian forces are conducting a battlefield air interdiction (BAI) campaign against the Fortress Belt that relies more heavily on glide bomb strikes and aims to set conditions for future offensive operations against Slovyansk and Kramatorsk.[38]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Dobropillya tactical area on August 15 to 16 but did not advance.[39]

Russian forces continued striking Dobropillya with high-explosive glide bombs to degrade urban cover for Ukrainian infantry and drone crews. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) posted footage on August 16 purportedly showing Russian forces conducting FAB-500 glide bomb strikes against Ukrainian drone ground control stations in Dobropillya.[40] Geolocated footage published on August 15 shows Russian forces conducting glide bomb strikes against a Ukrainian temporary deployment site in Dobropillya.[41]

Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Pokrovsk and Novopavlivka directions on August 15 and 16 but did not advance.[42]

Russian milbloggers continue amplifying the Russian Ministry of Defense’s (MoD) claims of exaggerated Russian advances in the Oleksandrivka direction as part of the systematic Russian cognitive warfare campaign aimed at generating informational effects. A Kremlin-affiliated milblogger claimed on August 15 that Russian forces control Yalta, Piddubne, and Myrne (all east of Oleksandrivka) – settlements that Ukrainian forces liberated during the 2026 Oleksandrivka direction counteroffensive – and that Russian forces are seizing new positions in and near Rybalske (southwest of Oleksandrivka).[43] The milblogger claimed that Russian forces pushed Ukrainian forces back from the chain of settlements between Yehorivka (south of Oleksandrivka) and Voskresenka (east of Oleksandrivka) but noted that Ukrainian forces maintain a presence in adjacent windbreaks. The milblogger claimed that the current state of the frontline, referring to its porous nature and lack of contiguous lines, allowed Ukrainian infiltrators to raise flags in settlements that Russian forces control in an attempt to downplay Ukrainian successes during the 2026 Oleksandrivka direction counteroffensive. Another Russian milblogger claimed that Ukrainian forces maintain positions in many areas near Verbove (southeast of Oleksandrivka) and that Russian forces advanced towards Rybalske (southwest of Oleksandrivka).[44] ISW assesses that Ukrainian forces liberated at least 626 square kilometers of tactically significant territory in the Oleksandrivka direction between January and August 2026, and that Ukrainian forces restored elements of tactical mechanized maneuver during the operation.[45]

Ukrainian forces continued their intermediate-range strike campaign against Russian military assets in occupied Donetsk Oblast. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 16 that Ukrainian forces struck Russian ammunition and equipment warehouses in occupied Karlivka (approximately 34 kilometers from the frontline).[46] Footage posted on August 15 shows a large fire at the Galaktika shopping center in occupied Donetsk City (approximately 50 kilometers from the frontline).[47] Ukrainian Center for the Study of Occupation Head and former Mariupol official Petro Andryushchenko reported on August 16 that Ukrainian strikes against Russian logistics in occupied Donetsk Oblast force Russian forces to constantly change logistics routes, increasingly deploy electronic warfare (EW) systems on transport, and assign at least three mobile fire groups to escort each Russian military convoy.[48] Andryushchenko noted that Ukrainian strikes significantly degraded Russian logistics in occupied Donetsk Oblast.