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The growing divide between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the Ethiopian federal government threatens to kill the Pretoria peace agreement and return violence to Tigray. The schism has likely prompted the TPLF to recalibrate its ties with Eritrea, which has exacerbated tensions between the TPLF and Ethiopia and Ethiopia and Eritrea.
Former Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) President Joseph Kabila has reentered Congolese politics amid the eastern DRC crisis after a multiyear hiatus. Kabila remained outside of the DRC for more than a year and kept a low profile until he began remobilizing his political networks to “organize his return to the forefront” in late 2024.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) captured a key border area between Egypt, Libya, and Sudan on June 10 that the RSF will likely use to strengthen its supply lines.
The Russian Wagner Group formally withdrew from Mali, as the Kremlin continues to transition control of its military operations in Africa to the Ministry of Defense–backed Africa Corps. The shift to more overt Russian state military involvement in Africa creates myriad domestic and geopolitical risks for the Kremlin. Russia may accordingly adapt its engagement in Africa to the detriment of its current and prospective partnerships.
Jamaat Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) has intensified the rate and scale of attacks against government-controlled population centers across the Sahel, particularly in Burkina Faso and Mali, since the beginning of May.
M23 has intensified its offensive operations against pro-Congolese government fighters in North Kivu province in recent weeks. M23 seeks to clear parts of Rutshuru district of these fighters and prevent attacks on the rebel group’s positions and logistic routes. M23 has separately conducted a large-scale effort to demographically reshape areas that it controls in North Kivu province.
The Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) have made incremental progress against the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in several areas of Sudan since mid-May despite RSF counterattacks and the RSF’s drone campaign against Port Sudan. The SAF renewed attacks against the RSF in central Sudan along a key highway linking central and western Sudan and made gains in northern Sudan.
Burkina Faso. Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen’s latest attack highlights its ability to overrun population centers in the Sahel and the failures of the coup-prone Burkinabe junta.
The Rapid Support Forces (RSF) attacked Port Sudan with drones for the first time. These operations are part of the RSF campaign to disrupt Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) governance and logistics.
Uganda is working with actors on multiple sides of the conflict in the eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) to hedge and strengthen its sphere of influence. Uganda has developed a security partnership with the DRC in recent years. However, Uganda also maintains ties to the Rwandan-backed M23 rebel movement and has activated its own rebel proxies in the eastern DRC.