Terrorist Networks Project

Africa File, January 16, 2025: SAF Advances in Central Sudan en Route to Khartoum; Canadian Gold Mining Company Leaves Mali with Russia on Standby; JNIM’s Deadliest-Ever Attack in Benin; DRC Launches Counteroffensive Against Rwandan-backed M23

The SAF recaptured Wad Madani from the RSF on January 11, an operationally significant district capital in central Sudan that will help to set conditions for the SAF to achieve its strategic objective of retaking the Sudanese capital, Khartoum. The capture of Wad Madani is part of the Sudanese Armed Forces’ (SAF) effort to encircle the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Khartoum and ultimately dislodge the RSF from the capital. The recapture of Khartoum is a strategic objective for the SAF that supports the SAF’s grand strategic aim of establishing itself as the only legitimate power in Sudan. The SAF capture of Khartoum could affect external support for the SAF and RSF from Egypt and the United Arab Emirates, respectively.

Africa File, January 9, 2025: Islamic State Suicide Attack in Somalia; AUSSOM Dysfunction; M23 Captures District Capital in Eastern DRC

Islamic State in Somalia (ISS) carried out its most complex attack in Somalia yet on December 31. ISS will likely continue to prioritize its strategic aim of acting as a logistic and administrative node in support of IS’s global network rather than refocusing on carrying out additional high-profile attacks in Somalia. ISS targeted a military base where Puntland defense forces had mobilized for a counter-ISS offensive and likely conducted the attack to disrupt the planned offensive.

Africa File Special Edition: Ankara Declaration Reduces Ethiopia-Somalia Tensions but Leaves Unresolved Gaps

Ethiopia and Somalia agreed on December 11 to work toward securing Ethiopian commercial access to the Red Sea as part of a Turkish-mediated deal that will likely benefit Ethiopia and Turkey and undermine the SFG’s legitimacy. Ethiopia will likely withdraw from or at least pause its controversial naval base agreement with the breakaway Somaliland region because of the new agreement with Somalia, which is known as the Ankara Declaration.

Africa File, December 5, 2024: French Influence in Africa Erodes Further; Syria’s Impact on Russia in Africa and the Mediterranean; Somalia Political Dispute Turns Hot; DRC-Rwanda Peace Plans Move Ahead; Tuareg Setback

The ongoing election dispute between Jubbaland and the SFG sparked a brief firefight in late November and continues to pose a heightened threat of further internal political violence and a direct or proxy conflict between Somalia and Ethiopia. Ethiopia could take advantage of the escalating dispute between Jubbaland and the Somali Federal Government (SFG) to increase its presence in the region in the context of Ethiopia’s own disputes with the SFG and Egypt.

Africa File, November 14, 2024: Russia-Africa Ministerial Summit; AQ and IS Infiltrate Northwestern Nigeria; Jubbaland Goes Rogue

Russia used the first Russia-Africa Ministerial Summit to continue pushing narratives and securing deals that advance its strategic objective of using Africa to undermine the Western-led international system and highlight its stature as a global power.

Africa File, November 7, 2024: Niamey Threatened; Boko Haram Fallout in Chad; M23 Marches on Eastern DRC; Somalia-Jubbaland Tensions

Al Qaeda’s Sahelian affiliate JNIM attacked a military checkpoint in the Niamey suburbs, signaling its ability to attack the Nigerien capital roughly one month after it launched its first attack on the Malian capital in a decade. A major attack on Niamey would likely undermine the Nigerien junta’s legitimacy and support base, which could cause the junta to turn to external backers like Iran and Russia for additional military assistance.

Africa File, October 24, 2024: JNIM Strikes Northern Niger; DRC Peace Talks and M23 Offensive; Egypt-Djibouti Cooperation; Ethiopia-Somalia AUSSOM Tug-of-War

JNIM claimed an attack on a border post in northern Niger near the border with Algeria, marking the group’s first attack in far northern Niger. Nigerien Tuareg rebels also gave a competing claim for the attack but failed to provide evidence. The competing claims possibly indicate that the two groups are coordinating their operations, as Jama’at Nusrat al Islam wa al Muslimeen (JNIM) has done with Tuareg rebels in Mali.

Africa File, October 17, 2024: Egypt-Eritrea-Somalia Summit; Challenges with Tigray Peace Process

The presidents of Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia formalized and deepened an anti-Ethiopian alliance during a trilateral summit on October 10. The summit is part of a framework that Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia are developing to counter Ethiopia if it follows through on its port deal with Somaliland.

Pages