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Iran Update, November 16, 2024

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei reportedly called on Lebanese Hezbollah to accept a ceasefire agreement that would require Hezbollah to remain north of the Litani River per UN Security Council Resolution 1701. Two individuals affiliated with the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) told the New York Times on November 16 that senior Supreme Leader adviser Ali Larijani conveyed this message to Hezbollah during his recent visit to Beirut. The message emphasized that Khamenei supports “ending the war with Israel” and that Iran will help Hezbollah recover from the war.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 16, 2024

Ukrainian drone operations continue to play a critical role in constraining Russian mechanized maneuver and preventing Russian forces from fully exploiting Ukraine's ongoing manpower constraints. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated during an interview with Ukrainian media published on November 16 that Russian forces are currently advancing along the frontline due in part to decreased Ukrainian morale exacerbated by delays in staffing and equipping new Ukrainian brigades and granting frontline Ukrainian defenders necessary rest and rotation.

Africa File, November 14, 2024: Russia-Africa Ministerial Summit; AQ and IS Infiltrate Northwestern Nigeria; Jubbaland Goes Rogue

Russia used the first Russia-Africa Ministerial Summit to continue pushing narratives and securing deals that advance its strategic objective of using Africa to undermine the Western-led international system and highlight its stature as a global power.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 14, 2024

The Kremlin's recent economic policies indicate that the Russian economy will likely face significant challenges in 2025 and that Russian President Vladimir Putin is worried about Russia's economic stability in the long term. The Kremlin recently adopted several policies that aim to cut Russian government spending on wounded Russian servicemen, combat inflation, and address long-term demographic problems such as low birth rates and labor shortages.

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