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Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 16, 2024

Jul 16, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukrainian drone strikes deep within Russia continue to pressure Russia's air defense umbrella and force the Russian military command to prioritize allocating limited air defense assets to cover what it deems to be high-value targets. Satellite imagery collected on May 6 indicates that Russian forces have concentrated at least seven Pantsir-1 medium-range air defense systems around Russian President Vladimir Putin's residence in Valdai, Leningrad Oblast. Ruslan Pukhov, the head of the Moscow-based Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies and a member of a Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) civilian advisory board, stated on July 16 that such "focal" air defense coverage (static coverage of a singular target) is meaningless at scale because it allows Ukrainian drones to bypass Russian air defense coverage and strike from uncovered directions.

Iran Update, July 15, 2024

Jul 15, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has not yet confirmed whether it killed Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif. The IDF conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone on July 13 targeting Deif and Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. The IDF confirmed on July 14 that the strike killed Salamah. Hamas officials maintain that Deif is alive but have not provided evidence to back their assertion.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 15, 2024

Jul 15, 2024 - ISW Press

A recent Ukrainian poll indicates that Ukrainians widely reject Russia's demands for total Ukrainian capitulation, emphasizing that the Kremlin's conditions for the end of the war are entirely unreasonable and widely unpopular within Ukraine. The poll found that 83 percent of respondents rejected Putin's statement that Ukraine must withdraw from all of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhia oblasts — including territory in these oblasts currently under Ukrainian control. The poll also reported that 58 percent of respondents stated that Ukraine should not agree to enshrine a neutral, non-aligned, and non-nuclear status in its constitution.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 14, 2024

Jul 14, 2024 - ISW Press

Russian officials and milbloggers reiterated complaints about poor security around critical infrastructure in rear areas of Russia in response to a July 13 Ukrainian drone strike against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast. The Russian military command may have committed under-equipped units initially intended to act as an operational reserve to combat operations, possibly due to constraints on the Russian defense industrial base (DIB) or efforts to reinforce ongoing Russian grinding assaults in Ukraine. Ukrainian forces recently regained lost positions near Vovchansk, and Russian forces recently advanced near Avdiivka.

Iran Update, July 13, 2024

Jul 13, 2024 - ISW Press

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike in the al Mawasi humanitarian zone targeting Hamas’ top military commander, Mohammad Deif, on July 13. The strike also targeted Hamas Khan Younis Brigade Commander Rafe Salamah. Israel is still assessing whether the strike killed Deif or Salamah. Israeli officials confirmed that they conducted the strike based on specific intelligence collected over the prior 24 hours. The IDF Air Force dropped eight 2,000-pound precision munitions targeting a building in which Deif and Salamah were assessed to be.

Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 13, 2024

Jul 13, 2024 - ISW Press

Ukraine's Security Service (SBU) reportedly conducted successful drone strikes against an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast on the morning of July 13. Ukrainian outlet Suspilne reported that its sources stated that SBU drones struck the oil depot, which stored various grades of gas and diesel fuel. Russian sources amplified footage showing the fire at an oil depot near Tsimlyansk, Rostov Oblast (156km northeast of Rostov-on-Don), and Rostov Oblast Head Vasily Golubev confirmed that a drone strike caused the fire. A Ukrainian military observer told Ukrainian media that Ukrainian forces are targeting Russian military logistics, including oil depots, and that Rostov Oblast is one of Russia's most important military logistics hubs.

Davit Gasparyan

 

Davit Gasparyan is a Russia Researcher at the Institute for the Study of War (ISW). Prior to this role, he was an MA student at Harvard University's Davis Center, focusing on Regional Studies of Russia, Eastern Europe, and Central Asia. During his time there, he extensively studied the EU's Eastern Partnerships, the various European integration processes of Eastern European and South Caucasus countries, and the Russian responses to these developments. His primary research interests include public international law, Russian foreign policy, and European integration and affairs.

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