Iran Project

US and Israeli airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) between June 12 and 24 reportedly destroyed components of Iran’s nuclear program that would be necessary for weaponization. The strikes destroyed the Uranium Metal Conversion Plant at the ENTC, which Iran could have used to transform uranium gas into dense metal in a process called metallization. This process is one of the last steps required to form the explosive core of an atomic bomb.

US and Israeli strikes severely set back Iran’s enrichment capabilities, but Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile poses a long-term threat.

The United States and Iran will reportedly resume nuclear negotiations in the near future. Neither side has changed its position on key issues, including Iranian uranium enrichment and Iran’s missile program, however.

Preliminary intelligence assessments suggest the US and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities caused serious damage to the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP). The New York Times published a June 25 report on a leaked, low-confidence US intelligence assessment of the recent US strikes on the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant.

Israel conducted a two-week air campaign with the objective of degrading, destroying and removing the threat of Iran’s nuclear program.

The ceasefire between Iran and Israel appears to be holding despite both Israeli and Iranian claims of violations. Israel has responded to perceived Iranian violations of the ceasefire but has not resumed its campaign at this time.

US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Iran agreed to a ceasefire, beginning the evening of June 23. A senior Iranian official confirmed to Reuters that the ceasefire would occur following Qatari mediation.

Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari similarly warned that Iran’s response would be “decisive” and “unpredictable.”

Iranian leaders are currently calibrating their response to the United States' striking their nuclear program. How they ultimately respond will depend on what they conclude is necessary to preserve the Islamic Republic and ensure its longevity. That conclusion will, in turn, derive from how Iranian leaders understand their current situation and their risk tolerance. The following is an assessment that examines these factors and what key decisions Tehran is facing and how it will likely proceed.

Russia condemned the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 amid reports that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.