Iran Project

Russian President Vladimir Putin offered to mediate Iran-Israeli talks following the onset of the Iran-Israeli war on June 13. Neither Iran, Israel, nor the United States is likely to engage in productive talks for peace or Iran's nuclear program in the near term. Putin is likely using the Iran-Israeli war to present himself to US President Donald Trump as a peacemaker in a bid to improve bilateral US-Russian relations and secure concessions over the war in Ukraine.

The IAEA confirmed that Israeli strikes have impacted underground infrastructure at the Natanz nuclear site. This came after the IAEA reported that Israeli strikes have likely damaged or destroyed thousands of centrifuges at Natanz.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted military infrastructure across Iran since June 16. The IDF destroyed dozens of ballistic missile and drone storage and launch sites in western Iran overnight between June 16 and 17.

This explainer is meant to help build a common understanding of the structure and function of the myriad entities within the Iranian armed forces and the roles that they play in regime security.

Iran has maintained its negotiating position on its nuclear program during the Israeli campaign, meaning that Iran does not appear willing to negotiate an end to the Iran-Israel War yet.

Israel struck military and military-industrial sites around Tehran as part of its ongoing campaign into Iran. There are also unverified reports of an Israeli strike around the Fordow nuclear site.

The IDF expanded its air campaign into Iran by beginning to strike regime institutions, including some related to internal security and social control. This comes the day after the IDF began striking energy infrastructure. The degradation of the Iranian coercive apparatus coupled with energy shortages could destabilize the regime. The IDF conducted its furthest strike eastward as part of its efforts to establish air superiority over Iran. Iran has continued its missile campaign targeting Israel, having launched 10 total barrages at the time of this writing.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.

The Israeli air campaign is driving generational turnover in Iranian military leadership. The IDF has continued to target Iranian military targets across Iran, likely to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities. This update contains early battle damage assessments (BDA) of several Iranian facilities, including Natanz, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center, and several military bases.

Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12.