Iran Project

Khatam ol Anbia Central Headquarters Spokesperson Ebrahim Zolfaghari similarly warned that Iran’s response would be “decisive” and “unpredictable.”

Iranian leaders are currently calibrating their response to the United States' striking their nuclear program. How they ultimately respond will depend on what they conclude is necessary to preserve the Islamic Republic and ensure its longevity. That conclusion will, in turn, derive from how Iranian leaders understand their current situation and their risk tolerance. The following is an assessment that examines these factors and what key decisions Tehran is facing and how it will likely proceed.

Russia condemned the recent US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities on June 22 amid reports that Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi will meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin in Moscow on June 23.

The United States conducted strikes against three Iranian nuclear sites, including the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEEP) in Qom Province.

Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei has begun implementing emergency succession measures in response to escalating Israeli strikes and the potential for US military involvement.

The Israel Defense Forces conducted a new wave of airstrikes on the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center on June 21 as part of Israel’s campaign to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program

Iran is attempting to impose a dilemma on the United States and the international community: accept Iranian terms in nuclear negotiations or risk a long and challenging hunt for hidden Iranian nuclear material.

The lack of a meaningful response from the so-called “Axis of Resistance” to the Israel-Iran war reveals how exhausted it is after months of fighting the United States and Israel.

Six US Air Force air-to-air refuelers moved westward from bases in California and Oklahoma to Honolulu, Hawaii, and Travis Air Force Base, California, respectively, on June 19.

Iranian officials have expressed interest in negotiating an end to the Israel-Iran conflict but have not moderated their negotiating positions from before the conflict. An unspecified US official cited by Axios on June 19 stated that US Special Envoy Steve Witkoff has been in contact with Iranian Foreign Affairs Minister Abbas Araghchi and has received some indications that Iran is interested in resuming negotiations.