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Iran has maintained its negotiating position on its nuclear program during the Israeli campaign, meaning that Iran does not appear willing to negotiate an end to the Iran-Israel War yet.
Israel struck military and military-industrial sites around Tehran as part of its ongoing campaign into Iran. There are also unverified reports of an Israeli strike around the Fordow nuclear site.
The IDF expanded its air campaign into Iran by beginning to strike regime institutions, including some related to internal security and social control. This comes the day after the IDF began striking energy infrastructure. The degradation of the Iranian coercive apparatus coupled with energy shortages could destabilize the regime. The IDF conducted its furthest strike eastward as part of its efforts to establish air superiority over Iran. Iran has continued its missile campaign targeting Israel, having launched 10 total barrages at the time of this writing.
The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) has targeted several nuclear sites in Tehran since CTP-ISW's last data cutoff on June 14.
The Israeli air campaign is driving generational turnover in Iranian military leadership. The IDF has continued to target Iranian military targets across Iran, likely to degrade Iran’s retaliatory capabilities. This update contains early battle damage assessments (BDA) of several Iranian facilities, including Natanz, Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center, and several military bases.
Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel. This is consistent with CTP-ISW’s observation that degrading Iran’s retaliatory capabilities was one objective of the initial Israeli strikes on June 12.
Israel launched an air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12 to “degrade, destroy, and remove [the] threat” of Iranian weaponization of its nuclear program. The June 12 to 13 strikes are the opening volley in a weekslong air campaign, according to multiple Israeli officials.
This update is the second of at least three CTP-ISW Iran Updates over the next 24 hours that will cover the Iran-Israel war. The recent Israeli strikes are a rapidly evolving situation, and no single individual or organization will have complete information at this time, including the states involved.
Israel conducted the first strikes of its air campaign targeting the Iranian nuclear program and regime leadership on June 12. This update is the first of at least three CTP-ISW Iran Updates over the next 24 hours that will cover the situation as it evolves.
The Syrian transitional government has quickly responded to several false reports of insurgent activity in coastal Syria over the last week. The government’s rapid response demonstrates that the government remains concerned about violence in coastal Syria despite low levels of Alawite insurgency activity there. Multiple factors, including a lack of Alawite support for insurgent groups, government pressure, and poorly executed insurgent operations, have probably contributed to the decrease in insurgent activity in coastal areas.