Iran Project

The Iranian Foreign Affairs Ministry announced on July 21 that senior Iranian officials will meet with E3 (the United Kingdom, France, and Germany) officials in Istanbul, Turkey, on July 25 to discuss the Iranian nuclear issue. Iranian Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Political Affairs Majid Takht Ravanchi and Deputy Foreign Affairs Minister for Legal and International Affairs Kazem Gharibabadi will attend the talks. The talks come as the E3 has threatened to trigger the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) snapback mechanism to reimpose UN Security Council (UNSC) sanctions on Iran.

Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps-affiliated media confirmed that senior E3 (the United Kingdom, Germany, and France) and Iranian diplomats agreed to discuss Iran’s nuclear program “next week.” The E3 has warned that it may trigger snapback sanctions on Iran if Iran does not deliver unspecified “concrete results” by the end of August.

Israel and Syria agreed to a ceasefire in southern Syria on July 18 that reportedly returns control of Suwayda Province to the Syrian transitional government. Government forces have deployed to towns in Suwayda Province as part of the first phase of the ceasefire agreement.

Israel reversed its previous demand that Syrian transitional government forces refrain from intervening in Suwayda Province, southern Syria. An unspecified Israeli official reported on July 18 that Israel will “allow” a limited number of Syrian transitional government forces to enter Suwayda for the next 48 hours to restore stability

A US media outlet reported on July 17 that US strikes in Iran on June 21 caused significant damage to only one of the three Iranian nuclear facilities that the United States struck.[1] CTP-ISW has previously assessed that the strikes caused significant damage to all three facilities and will likely set back Iran's nuclear program.

Israeli airstrikes in Syria are unlikely to achieve Israel’s stated aim of protecting the Druze in Syria because the strikes do not address the root cause of attacks committed by some members of the Syrian Ministry of Defense (MoD) against the Druze. These attacks largely stem from a lack of control over undisciplined MoD units.

Iran may be prioritizing deeper strategic ties with China over its current partnership with Russia, though the extent of China’s willingness to support Iran remains unclear. 

The Iranian regime is pursuing a relatively unchanged nuclear negotiating position even as hardliners continue to advocate preconditions that would amount to a rejection of renewed negotiations with the United States.

Iran has built new access roads and flattened earth near impact points at the Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant (FFEP), likely as part of Iran’s efforts to assess the damage at the facility. 

Iranian personnel have not made any visible attempts to access the underground areas of the Esfahan Nuclear Technology Center (ENTC) and Natanz Enrichment Complex as of July 9. The process to repair the ENTC’s facilities is “lengthy and complicated” due to the collapsed tunnel entrances and the need to check ENTC’s aboveground facilities for radiation hazards, according to the Institute for Science and International Security.