Toplines

The Russian rate of advance in Ukraine remains low two and a half months into the Russian Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which has failed to make any operationally significant gains. ISW has observed evidence to assess that Russian forces have advanced in 37.85 square kilometers of territory in Ukraine (smaller than the area of Manhattan) in July 2026 for an average of 1.22 square kilometers per day. Russia’s monthly rate of advance has not changed significantly since February 2026, prior to the start of its Spring-Summer 2026 offensive, which began in mid-March 2026.[1] Russian forces have infiltrated into more territory in July 2026 than in recent months, advancing or infiltrating into about 121.56 square kilometers of territory in all. Even the Russian rate of advance and infiltration in July 2026 is a fraction of Russia’s rate of advance in July 2025, when Russian forces seized 455.74 square kilometers. Russian forces leaned into conducting additional infiltration missions into Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast in July 2026, but Russia’s increased infiltrations have not resulted in the seizure of Kostyantynivka or the achievement of any operationally significant objectives.[2] The Russian monthly rate of advance in 2026 has been much lower than Russia’s rate of advance during the same period in 2025, even when including infiltrations.

Continued Ukrainian counterattacks, Ukraine’s intermediate range strike campaign, and Ukrainian drone dominance continue to constrain Russia’s rate of advance and ability to field mechanized vehicles. Russian forces have conducted a few mechanized assaults in isolated areas of the theater in July 2026, but these assaults did not result in meaningful gains.[3] The Kremlin has been optimizing the Russian military for positional warfare rather than maneuver warfare for several years, but Ukrainian adaptations are significantly slowing Russian advances in 2026 compared with previous years.[4] There is no indication that Russian forces will be able to accelerate their advances dramatically or restore maneuver to the battlefield at this time.

Russian forces reportedly suffered the highest casualty rate of 2026 thus far in July, paying an increasingly high price for no significant increase in the rate of advance — despite the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort to deny this fact. The Ukrainian General Staff reported on August 1 that Russian forces suffered 42,860 casualties in July 2026, a new monthly high for the war.[5] The Ukrainian General Staff’s data indicates that Russian casualties have been steadily increasing since February 2026, when Russian forces suffered 26,090 casualties. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on July 31 that Russian forces have suffered almost 700,000 killed in action (KIA) and about 1.6 million total casualties since February 2022.[6] The Ukrainian General Staff’s casualty rates indicate that Russian forces suffered an average of 353 casualties per square kilometer of territory seized or infiltrated in July 2026, and a staggering 1,132 casualties per square kilometer seized.

The Kremlin is desperately attempting to disguise its slow rate of advance in Ukraine through exaggerated claims of advance, but even Moscow’s claimed rate of advance is only about footpace. Russian forces have advanced, infiltrated, or claimed to have advanced in 18.49 square kilometers per day in July 2026. The Kremlin and senior Russian military command have leaned into their cognitive warfare campaign, attempting to falsely show that Russian forces are advancing in all sectors of the front, that Ukrainian lines are collapsing, and that the West should abandon Ukraine as a hopeless cause.[7] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Kremlin newswire TASS each made exaggerated claims on July 31 about the number of settlements that Russian forces allegedly seized in July 2026 as part of this informational effort.[8] This Russian informational effort also likely aims to convince Russians that the sacrifices they are making for the war, including the staggering casualty rates, economic burden, Ukrainian strikes in Russia, and Kremlin censorship measures, are worth it.[9] But even the Kremlin’s most extensive claims do not have Russian forces advancing faster than footpace, a rate of advance far slower than the Kremlin would need to collapse Ukrainian lines and rapidly seize the areas Moscow reportedly aims to capture by the end of 2026.

Russian forces continued to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of Patriot interceptor missiles by launching another large ballistic missile and drone strike series against Ukraine overnight on July 31 to August 1, primarily targeting Kyiv Oblast. The Ukrainian Air Force reported on August 1 that Russian forces launched 35 missiles and 185 drones and prioritized targeting Kyiv Oblast while also targeting Dnipropetrovsk, Sumy, Kharkiv, and Poltava oblasts.[10] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched four Zirkon/Onyx anti-ship/ cruise missiles from Kursk and Rostov oblasts; 27 Iskander-M/S-400 ballistic missiles from Bryansk and Kursk oblasts; and two Kh-31 anti-radar missiles and two Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles from the Black Sea. The Ukrainian Air Force added that Russian forces launched 185 Shahed, jet-powered Shahed, Gerbera, and Italmas-type drones; Banderol cruise missile/loitering munitions; and Parodiya-type decoy drones from Bryansk, Kursk, and Oryol cities and occupied Donetsk City and Hvardiiske, Crimea. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that four Zirkon/Onyx and 26 Iskander-M/S-400 missiles as well as 23 strike drones struck 23 locations; that drone debris fell at two locations; and that three missiles did not reach their targets as of 0930 local time. The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian air defenses intercepted or suppressed one Iskander-M/S-400 missile, one Kh-59/69 missile, and 154 strike drones, and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky attributed Ukraine’s inability to intercept more ballistic missiles to Patriot interceptor missile shortages.[11]

Kyiv City and Kyiv Oblast officials reported that Russian ballistic strikes on Kyiv City killed nine people and wounded 33, including four children, and that the strikes caused fires and damage in seven Kyiv City districts.[12] Kyiv City Mayor Vitaliy Klitschko reported that Russian forces twice struck the territory of the Kyivmedspetstrans emergency and transport organization, destroying five ambulances and damaging four buildings and vehicles that service healthcare institutions.[13] Zelensky added that Russian strikes damaged 18 residential buildings, a school, and the Lithuanian Embassy in Kyiv City.[14] Lithuanian President Gitānas Naūseda confirmed that a Russian missile exploded near the Lithuanian Embassy in Kyiv City, damaging the embassy building.[15] Lithuanian Foreign Minister Kēstutis Budris announced that the Lithuanian Foreign Ministry (MFA) will summon a Russian embassy representative in Lithuania in response to the strike.[16] Mufti of Ukraine’s Umma Religious Administration of Muslims Murat Suleymanov reported that Russian strikes damaged the Umma’s main mosque for the third time.[17] ISW continues to assess that Russia has been escalating its missile strikes — particularly ballistic missile strikes — against Kyiv City in an effort to take advantage of Patriot interceptor shortages and inflict maximum damage on Ukrainian civilian, defense, and energy infrastructure.[18]

Russian forces launched a record number of missiles against Ukraine in July 2026 — notably firing more missiles than it is producing per month and increasingly leveraging its S-400 and Zirkon missiles to compensate for shortfalls in ballistic missile stockpiles. The Ukrainian Air Force data suggests that Russia launched at least 376 missiles against Ukraine in July 2026, the highest number of missiles launched in a single month since Russia began large-scale missile and drone strikes against Ukraine.[19] Russia launched nearly 90 more missiles in July 2026 than the 288 missiles launched in February 2026, the second-highest monthly total.[20] Russia previously conducted comparable large-scale missile strike series in October 2025 and December 2022, launching 270 missiles in each series. Russian forces reportedly launched over 30 Zirkon/Onyx anti-ship missiles; over 120 Iskander-M, S-400, and KN-23 ballistic missiles; over 140 Kh-101 and Kalibr cruise missiles; and over 60 Kh-59/Kh-69 cruise missiles in July 2026.[21]

Russian forces have likely increasingly tapped into their stockpiles and used newly produced missiles to sustain the higher intensity of ballistic missile strikes in July 2026. The Ukrainian Main Military Intelligence Directorate (GUR) reported on July 18 that Russia had over 100 Iskander-M and around 50 KN-23 ballistic missiles; over 60 Iskander-K and over 450 Kalibr cruise missiles; up to 100 Kh-101 cruise missiles; over 120 Zirkon anti-ship missiles; over 600 Onyx cruise missiles; over 400 S-300/S-400 missiles, and up to Kh-69 guided missiles in stocks.[22] The GUR had previously reported that Russian stockpiles had up to 110 Iskander-M, 200 Iskander-K, 690 Onyx, 230 Zirkon, 120 Kh-101, and 460 Kalibr missiles as of April 2026, indicating that Russia’s escalating strikes in the Summer 2026 have marginally depleted Russian stockpiles while Ukrainian forces conduct strikes on the Russian defense industry to disrupt production.[23] Ukrainian defense source Militarnyi, citing unspecified Ukrainian intelligence reports, reported on July 19 that Russia produces about 60 Iskander-M ballistic missiles and 40 missiles for the S-400 complex monthly.[24] A Ukrainian defense expert, citing data from GUR, reported on July 23 that Russia produced 50 Iskander-M, 60 Kh-101, and three Zirkon missiles per month as of July 18.[25]

The Kremlin appears to be increasingly tapping into its comparatively larger Zirkon and S-400 stockpiles, likely to offset the strain on Russian ballistic missile production and stockpiles. The Ukrainian defense expert noted that Russian forces have been able to intensify their ballistic missile strikes against Ukraine by increasingly relying on refurbished S-400 systems.[26] An open-source intelligence analyst also assessed in June 2026 that Russia has been increasingly relying on Zirkon missiles and that these missiles do not function as hypersonic cruise missiles but rather as maneuverable quasi-ballistic systems.[27] Militarnyi also estimated on July 19 that Russia had used up to two-thirds of its planned annual production of Zirkon missiles in July 2026.[28]

Russia’s alternative to the Starlink satellite network is reportedly already providing Russian forces the connectivity over Ukraine necessary to conduct precision drone strikes, increasing Ukraine’s urgent need for expanded Starlink connectivity over Russia to disrupt Russian strike packages before they are launched. Ukrainian satellite communications expert Volodymyr Stepanets told Ukrainian defense outlet Militarnyi that the first operational batch of 12 of 16 Russian Rassvet satellites has largely completed its deployment into orbit as of July 31.[29] Russian aerospace company Bureau 1440 developed Rassvet satellites as an alternative to SpaceX’s Starlink and launched the first batch of satellites in late March 2026, shortly after SpaceX cut off Russia’s unauthorized access to Starlink terminals in early February 2026.[30] Stepanets stated that the deployed Rassvet satellites already provide Russian forces “quite dense coverage,” particularly during two windows per day. N2YO satellite tracking service suggested that Rassvet satellites are positioned in orbits that allow them to pass over Ukraine four times a day and ensure a stable connection with the ground terminal during two or three flyovers, creating a temporary connectivity window for an hour to an hour and a half.[31] Militarnyi reported that Russian forces can use these connectivity windows to operate unmanned surface vehicles (USVs) and heavy strike and reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) in real time. Such capabilities can support attacking moving targets deep in the rear of Ukrainian forces, among other things. Militarnyi reported that Russia could gain two additional connectivity windows after the second batch of 16 Rassvet satellites reaches operational altitudes between October and November 2026. The Kremlin had previously stated that Rassvet will begin commercial operations in 2027, and Militarnyi estimated that Russia could secure 24/7 connectivity over Ukraine by mid-summer 2027.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reportedly asked US President Donald Trump to widen Ukraine’s Starlink access in an effort to expand Ukraine’s mid- and long-range strike capabilities over Russia.[32] Such access would allow Ukrainian forces to attack moving targets deep in Russian rear areas, particularly the launchers of Russian ballistic missiles. Starlink support to such Ukrainian operations could help offset the global shortage of Patriot missile interceptors.