China Project

The Taiwanese government has created a blacklist of 52 PRC-owned ships that warrant greater scrutiny to keep track of the PRC’s growing “shadow fleet” of ostensibly commercial vessels that act on behalf of the PRC. The Tokyo Memorandum of Understanding (MOU), an inter-governmental co-operative organization in the Asia-Pacific devoted to ensuring effective port state control, passed on a list of “problematic” ships to Taiwan, which the Taiwanese government later narrowed down to certain ships owned by PRC individuals or entities. The list focuses on cargo ships that are registered in Cameroon, Tanzania, Mongolia, Togo, and Sierra Leone. These five countries have the largest number of ships with problematic documentation, violations of maritime safety and labor regulations, or evasion of sanctions, according to Tokyo MOU.

The KMT-led Taiwanese legislature passed significant cuts and freezes to the 2025 national budget. The budget reductions will almost certainly impede the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP)-led administration's ability to function and undermine Taiwan's resilience against PRC pressure.

The South Korean authorities discovered a 164-foot tall and wide steel framework installed by the PRC within the Provisional Measures Zones (PMZ) of the Yellow Sea in December 2024. This installation is part of the PRC’s ongoing efforts to assert territorial control over the disputed waters, taking advantage of the leadership vacuum in South Korea amid its internal political turmoil following President Yoon Suk-yeol's martial law declaration on December 3, 2024.

The Chinese Nationalist Party (KMT) and Taiwan People's Party (TPP) pushed through new requirements on the Constitutional Court that will make it impossible for the court to carry out constitutional review until it fills some of its vacant seats. The KMT rejected all 7 of the ruling DPP’s judicial nominees to fill the vacancies, however, which makes it impossible for Lai to block legislation as long as the seats are unfilled.

Guam police apprehended seven People's Republic of China (PRC) nationals attempting to enter the island illegally on December 10 and 11 during a US missile interceptor test off the island. The PRC nationals arrived by the same boat from Saipan in the Northern Mariana Islands, which have a 90-day visa-exemption policy. The Guam Customs and Quarantine Agency stated in a press release that one of the three detainees arrested on December 10 had a standing warrant for her arrest and was found illegally entering the vicinity of a US military installation.

ROC President William Lai completed his tour of Taiwan’s diplomatic allies in the Pacific, which included transits through Hawaii and Guam. The PRC strongly condemned the transits and launched a military exercise after Lai returned.

The People's Republic of China (PRC) warned against Republic of China - Taiwan (ROC) President William Lai’s upcoming transit through United States territory on his trip through the Pacific. Lai transited through Hawaii on November 30 and plans to visit Guam while en route to the Marshall Islands, Tuvalu, and Palau, which are Taiwan’s three remaining diplomatic allies in the Pacific. Lai stayed in Hawaii for two nights; Hawaii governor Josh Green presented him with a gift in Honolulu.

Xi and Biden agreed not to integrate artificial intelligence (AI) into nuclear weapons control systems, signaling Beijing’s willingness to implement guardrails in issues about which it has previously been noncommittal.

The ROC government’s November 6 petition to disband the Chinese Unification Promotion Party and indictment of agents acting on behalf of the PRC illustrates the extensiveness of PRC infiltration and political warfare efforts in Taiwan.

The PRC’s hosting of the 5th Cross-strait Media Summit in Beijing from October 31 to November 1 contributes to its efforts to cultivate a favorable information landscape in Taiwan.