Iran Project

Hamas sent a formal response to the Israeli ceasefire proposal to international mediators on June 11. Hamas and the Palestinian Islamic Jihad expressed “readiness to positively” engage in a deal, emphasizing Hamas’ primary demand for a permanent ceasefire. Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh and Palestinian Islamic Jihad Secretary General Ziad al Nakhalah gave the response to the Qatari prime minister. Qatar and Egypt confirmed receipt of the Hamas response and said that they would review it and coordinate the next steps.

The Iranian Guardian Council approved a pool of six candidates that included mostly hardliners for the upcoming 2024 presidential election. The six approved candidates include five hardliners and one reformist on June 9 for the upcoming presidential election. The Iranian regime likely approved the sole reformist candidate to feign political diversity and therefore increase voter participation.

Israeli War Cabinet minister Benny Gantz resigned from the coalition government on June 9. Gantz’s resignation will not on its own cause the collapse of the Netanyahu government. The IDF expects to conclude clearing operations in Rafah in the “next few weeks,” according to an Israeli Army Radio correspondent.

Israeli forces rescued four Hamas-held hostages during a complex operation in the central Gaza Strip. Hamas captured the four hostages from the Nova music festival during the October 7 attack. This marks the second successful rescue of living hostages by Israel during the war. Israeli forces engaged Palestinian fighters during the rescue and Palestinian fighters killed one Israeli officer during the engagement. Hamas fighters fired a man portable air defense system at an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) helicopter in Nuseirat, where the rescue occurred. The IDF acknowledged the presence of civilians in the area and estimated the number of casualties to be under 100. Palestinian reports said that hundreds of civilians died during the rescue.

Hamas leader in the Gaza Strip Yahya Sinwar indicated opposition to the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal, according to unspecified Arab officials.

Hamas reportedly said that it will reject the Israeli ceasefire proposal, arguing that the proposal does not ensure a permanent end to hostilities. Saudi-based media obtained a copy of a Hamas memo to other Palestinian militias in which Hamas explained that Hamas did not accept the proposal because it is "fundamentally different" from the proposal that US President Joe Biden outlined on May 31.

A Syrian Arab Army (SAA)-affiliated source reported on June 4 that the Syrian Defense Laboratories Corporation manufactured rockets that Lebanese Hezbollah has used to conduct attacks against Israeli positions in northern Israel

A senior Hamas official responded negatively on June 4 to the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal for the Gaza Strip. Hamas appears unlikely to accept a proposal that does not meet the maximalist demands that Hamas has maintained since December 2023. Hamas Political Bureau member Osama Hamdan said Hamas cannot agree to a proposal that does not guarantee a permanent ceasefire, the complete withdrawal of Israeli forces from the Gaza Strip, and a hostage-for-prisoner exchange. Hamdan called on international mediators to obtain a clear Israeli commitment to these demands. Hamdan added that all Palestinian factions share Hamas’ position. Hamas remains confident that it will survive Israeli military operations in the Gaza Strip and can therefore maintain its maximalist demands without granting major concessions.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on June 3 that Israel will not agree to a permanent ceasefire until Israel achieves its war objectives. US President Joe Biden outlined the latest Israeli ceasefire proposal and encouraged both Hamas and Israel to accept it during a speech on May 31. He said that the proposal includes an initial six-week ceasefire with a partial Israeli military withdrawal and the release of some hostages while Hamas and Israel negotiate a permanent end to hostilities. Netanyahu said on June 3 that Biden’s outline of the proposal was only “partial.”

Unspecified US and Israeli officials said that Israel adjusted its military operations in Rafah to avoid crossing the US Joe Biden administration’s red lines. Israel originally planned to deploy two divisions to conduct clearing operations in Rafah. The United States expressed concern that such action could increase civilian casualties significantly. President Biden said on May 8 that the United States will stop supplying Israel with certain weapons if Israel conducts a major military operation into Rafah. The latest reporting is consistent with other reports that Israel was planning a limited attack targeting Hamas in Rafah and that the IDF is moving “more deliberately” in Rafah.