Iran Project

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23. He said on June 29 that the airstrikes will continue until the “elimination of militants.” The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights noted that the airstrikes are the deadliest in 2023 and resulted in at least 22 casualties. Hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians and militants relocated to Idlib Province during the Syrian civil war, which makes it the last rebel stronghold in Syria. The US-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham established an Islamist government in Idlib Province in 2017. Russia and Turkey agreed to a series of de-escalation agreements in 2017 and 2018 to stall a broader Turkish military incursion into Idlib Province. However, Russian forces and Iranian-backed militants supported the Syrian President Bashar al Assad regime in launching an offensive to retake Idlib Province in 2019, which concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2020. Since the ceasefire, Russian forces have conducted several airstrikes on rebel positions which rarely resulted in further escalation.

Key Takeaways

Iranian-backed militants are building new military sites south of Damascus City likely as part of the Iranian effort to secure transportation routes throughout Syria and connecting to the Golan Heights and Lebanon.
Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan traveled to Moscow on June 27 to expand internal security cooperation with Russian security services.

Iran is framing the US-led international coalition in Syria as an imminent security threat to local Syrians, possibly to incite and sustain local support to expel US forces from Syria. Iran maintains the capability to attack US forces in the Middle East via its proxies but has restrained them from conducting attacks.

Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan will soon travel to Russia to increase security cooperation with Moscow. Iran may seek Russian security assistance to crack down more forcefully on Iranian anti-regime activity.

The IRGC appointed two new northwest regional commanders on June 26, indicating the regime’s focus on security threats in the area.

The 20th round of Astana talks, which aim to end the Syria conflict, concluded in Astana, Kazakhstan on June 21 without an agreement. Iran and Syria messaged ahead of the forum that their positions are aligned for quadripartite talks, possibly signaling that Iran will back the Assad regime’s demand for Turkey’s complete withdrawal from Syria as a precondition for future Astana talks.

The Iranian rial has appreciated approximately ten percent since May 1, likely in part due to the Raisi administration’s economic diplomacy efforts. The Raisi administration’s economic diplomacy combined with ongoing nuclear talks may have generated confidence in the future of the Iranian economy, consequently increasing the value of the rial.

Iranian companies are competing for Syrian electricity infrastructure contracts, likely to generate additional revenue for the Iranian economy and reinforce Iranian ties with the Syrian regime. Syrian Electricity Minister Ghassan al Zamil met with Iranian businesspeople to discuss establishing hydroelectric dams in Syria on June 20 in Damascus. This meeting comes after Iranian Energy Minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian announced that Iran will help rehabilitate the Syrian water and electricity industry on May 7. It also follows Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Syria from May 3-4, during which he and Syrian President Bashar al Assad signed 15 cooperation agreements and memorandums of understanding that cover oil, energy, transportation, reconstruction, and communications technology. The meeting demonstrates that Iran intends to be the primary provider of reconstruction projects in Syria.

The Syrian regime is leveraging regional normalization with Arab states to fund the reconstruction of Syria’s railways, which could block some Iranian efforts to secure revenue from such projects. The reconstruction of Syria’s rail infrastructure is likely to facilitate Iranian efforts to generate revenue through greater regional trade, nonetheless.

Iran is seeking to leverage arms sales to generate revenue for the Iranian economy.

Iran may have directed its Iraqi proxies to deescalate their rhetoric against US forces in Iraq. This is consistent with one of CTP’s hypotheses, which is that Iran is threatening attacks on US forces in Iraq and Syria to build leverage in the nuclear negotiations.

Iran and Syria coordinated their policy positions ahead of the next round of Astana talks.

Iran and Russia discussed Caspian Sea and Volga River transportation routes on June 16. The expansion of these routes could support Iran's transfer of military equipment to Russia.

Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi stressed Iran, Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela’s common struggle against “imperialism and domination” on his trip to Latin America between June 12-16, suggesting that Iran may seek to incorporate these countries into its Axis of Resistance.

An unidentified high-ranking Israel Defense Forces (IDF) commander told Newsweek that Israel is concerned about Russia transferring Western weapons captured in Ukraine to Iran. The IDF officer expressed concerns that Iran is researching Western weapons technology and sending the weapons to its client militias in Lebanon and Palestine. The IDF officer’s claims are consistent with previous Western reports. CNN previously reported that Russian forces have been capturing US- and NATO-provided weapons and equipment in Ukraine and sending these materials to Iran, notably Javelin anti-tank and Stinger anti-aircraft systems. A Russian military aircraft transported those same systems and a British NLAW anti-tank missile to Tehran on August 20, 2022, according to Sky News. This Iranian and Russian defense cooperation is part of a broader and evolving partnership evident in several different fields between Tehran and Moscow, as CTP has previously reported.

CTP has observed several developments that indicate the Iraqi Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) is expanding its military capabilities and broadening its civil role in Iraq along the lines of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) in Iran.

Israel Defense Forces (IDF) conducted an airstrike on three Iranian and Syrian Arab Army (SAA) military positions in Damascus, Syria on June 13.

Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei met with Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) Secretary General Ziyad al-Nakhalah in Tehran on June 14, underscoring Iran’s commitment to expanding Axis of Resistance operations in the West Bank.

Iranian officials are promoting reports of resumed nuclear negotiations with the United States likely to generate short-term benefits for the Iranian economy.

Iranian security forces are attempting to discourage citizens from holding commemoration ceremonies for killed Mahsa Amini protesters. Security forces’ renewed violence against innocent citizens could revive anti-regime protests.