Iran Project

Hamas is conducting a delaying operation against the advancing Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip to achieve strategic and operational effects. This assessment is a change to CTP-ISW's previous assessment that Hamas fighters in the northern Gaza Strip were screening a main defensive effort in Gaza City. According to US military doctrine, a delay mission is when a force “trades space for time by slowing” an enemy and “inflicting maximum damage . . . without . . . becoming decisively engaged.” A delay mission also seeks to “wear down the enemy so that friendly forces can regain the initiative through offensive action [or] establish an effective defense.” The IDF captured a Hamas battle plan on November 4 that suggested that Hamas had not heavily committed its forces to the defense of the northern Gaza Strip, which is consistent with a delay mission. A Gaza Strip-focused X (Twitter) account reported on November 10 that senior Hamas fighters fled al Shifa Hospital, where Hamas maintains key military and tunnel infrastructure. The delaying operation would have enabled these fighters to escape, and their escape lets Hamas preserve some of its core leadership. Reuters reported on November 3 that Hamas believes it can “frustrate” Israeli forces through “urban guerrilla tactics.”

Israeli forces advanced further toward al Shifa Hospital and the surrounding area and clashed with nearby Palestinian militia fighters. The Hamas-led Gaza Strip Health Ministry director general said that there are Israeli tanks in the streets and snipers on nearby roofs. An independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated footage taken from a building on the corner of the medical complex with audible small arms fire. The al Quds Brigades—the military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed on November 11 that its fighters fought the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) in the vicinity of al Shifa hospital and the nearby Nasr neighborhood and al Shati refugee camp. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—said its militia fighters are engaged in clashes at ”all the pivots and points” of Israeli progress in the Gaza Strip. Local media said that al Qassem Brigades fighters previously clashed with advancing Israeli forces on the al Nasr Street northeast of al Shifa hospital on November 10. Israeli military spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said that the IDF would help evacuate the infants from al Shifa hospital. Head of the Gaza Coordination and Liaison Administration said that the IDF is not shooting at the hospital or besieging the area and has left the east side of the hospital open.

Israeli forces advanced to the al Shifa Hospital, where Israel says Hamas maintains a critical command center. The Wall Street Journal reported that the al Shifa Hospital is evacuating as Israeli forces converge on the medical compound after a series of explosions in the area. The Hamas-run Ministry of Health claims that 50,000-60,000 people are sheltering inside and around the hospital. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Army Radio reported that the medical complex is surrounded. A doctor inside the hospital said the situation is extremely dangerous.

Israeli forces advanced to a Hamas security headquarters in the northwestern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) said that infantry, armor, engineering, and special forces units raided the security headquarters, which included intelligence and air defense headquarters. The IDF killed 50 Palestinian fighters while clearing the infrastructure, which included an underground tunnel system. The IDF published a map of the area, detailing several tunnel shafts in close proximity to each other. These clusters of tunnels could enable the hit-and-run attacks on Israeli forces that CTP-ISW has observed. An independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated footage that Hamas published on November 8 showing militia fighters firing rocket propelled grenades (RPG) at Israeli forces in the security headquarters.

Hamas forces north of Gaza City conducted hit-and-run attacks that harassed Israeli forces, which supports CTP-ISW's previous assessment that Hamas units in the northern Gaza Strip are screening a main defensive effort in central Gaza City. This is consistent with Hamas’s intent to fight a “long war...to force” Israel into a ceasefire. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) published a map showing the area of responsibility of one Hamas company between al Toam and al Falouja roads in the northern Gaza Strip on November 3. Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ) fighters near al Sulatain and al Taom streets, which are in or in the vicinity of this sector, fired anti-tank rockets and mortars at Israeli forces in at least eight hit-and-run attacks. Commercially available satellite imagery also showed tank tracks and cleared terrain consistent with Israeli clearing operations. Palestinian media also reported Israeli activity south of the al Toam-al Falouja sector. This sector is large for a company-sized unit defending against a mechanized advance in an urban environment, assuming that Hamas tactical units are roughly similar to or smaller than US infantry units. Hamas has not used more complex or advanced systems and tactics, such as house-borne improvised explosive devices, explosively-formed penetrators, advanced anti-tank missiles, or larger and more complex road-buried improvised explosive devices. This suggests that Hamas is weighting its main effort in Gaza City rather than the northern Gaza Strip.

Israeli military spokesman Lieutenant Colonel Richard Hecht said the IDF is slowly closing in on Gaza City. The IDF Air Force and Navy struck over 450 targets in the previous 24 hours, including Hamas military compounds, observation posts, and firing positions. The IDF said that it seized a Hamas position used for various military operations. Additionally, the IDF published footage on November 6 of its effort to transport ammunition, medical equipment, food, and advanced weapons to support fighting in Gaza.

Israeli ground forces advanced along the northwestern Gazan coast amid reports of clashes with Hamas in the area. IDF spokesman Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said Israeli ground forces have fully encircled Gaza City and split the whole Gaza Strip into two. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—released footage of its militants operating in or around the al Shati Refugee Camp. Independent analyst on X (Twitter) geolocated the footage to the Ahmed Oraby road north of the al Shati camp. The footage shows militants launching rocket propelled grenades (RPGs) at IDF tanks. Both the al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of the Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—and the Al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigade said they targeted Israeli vehicles in northwestern Gaza on November 5.

Captured Hamas plans suggest that Hamas has not heavily committed to defending parts of the northern outskirts of Gaza City, which may indicate that Hamas units in parts of that area are screening for a main defensive effort in central Gaza City. The IDF captured and published a Hamas map apparently showing a Hamas company’s area of responsibility between al Toam and Falouja roads west of Jabaliya during a raid on a Hamas intelligence headquarters in Jabaliya. The sector is roughly half a kilometer deep and 1.5 kilometers across, which is a large sector for a company-sized unit defending against a mechanized advance in an urban area, depending on how Hamas tactical units are structured. Most of the area is not heavily built up, however, and Hamas commanders may simply have chosen not to focus on it. Palestinian militant attacks behind the Israeli forward line of advance are probably another supporting effort intended to harass and disrupt Israeli forces, rather than defeat them.

Palestinian militias targeted IDF ground forces with small arms, anti-tank fire, and indirect fire in the northern Gaza Strip. IDF spokesperson Daniel Hagari said that the IDF is encircling Gaza City from the air land, and sea. Fighting continued behind the Israeli forward line of advance in the central Gaza Strip, however. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed responsibility for attacking IDF forces in the northwest, northeast, and south of Gaza City. The al Qassem Brigades used anti-tank munitions and their intricate network of tunnels underneath the Gaza Strip to ambush IDF forces. They also used rockets and mortars to attack IDF vehicles and infantry near the Erez military checkpoint on the northern border. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed to fire artillery at advancing IDF vehicles along the coast.

Iranian-backed militants, including Lebanese Hezbollah (LH), conducted 28 attacks into northern Israel on November 2, which is the largest offensive on this front since the Israel-Hamas War began. LH fired one-way attack drones for the first time at the IDF Zebdin barracks in the contested Shebaa Farms area. LH has primarily relied on anti-tank squads to attack IDF positions up until this point. LH claimed to simultaneously attack 19 IDF positions along the Lebanon-Israel border. This uptick in attacks precedes LH Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s planned speech on November 3, during which he may announce further escalation against Israel. LH declared on October 8 that it is not a neutral party in the conflict but has nevertheless sustained daily attacks into northern Israel since the war began.