Iran Project

The intensifying operations between Israel and Lebanese Hezbollah are part of the broader war that Israel has fought since October 7, 2023. Hezbollah has conducted almost daily attacks into Israel since the war began in order to compel Israel to accept defeat in the Gaza Strip and thus preserve Hamas. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu defined returning northern Israelis to their homes as an additional war aim, adding it to the objectives he set after October 7: returning Israeli hostages and destroying Hamas’ military and governance capabilities in the Gaza Strip.

Israel set new war objectives for Lebanon on September 16. Accomplishing these objectives would require the IDF to undertake a second major military campaign in Lebanon as part of the October 7 War.

The IDF conducted a large-scale air campaign into Lebanon. This activity marks three consecutive days of heavy Israeli airstrikes into Lebanon. Lebanese Hezbollah launched its own strikes into Israel, which is consistent with Hezbollah’s stated intent to continue cross-border attacks. The Islamic Resistance in Iraq claimed five attacks into Israel. The IDF intercepted several drones and cruise missiles headed toward Israel from Iraq.

Israel has issued new security protocols for some of its northern communities in anticipation of intensifying conflict with Lebanese Hezbollah.

Israel appears to be exploiting disarray in Lebanese Hezbollah in order to inflict further damage upon the group.

Israeli sources reported on September 19 that Israeli officials are deciding whether the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) will conduct an offensive into Lebanon. Hezbollah will almost certainly not cease rocket fire into northern Israel, which will necessitate an Israeli operation if Israel hopes to achieve its stated objectives in northern Israel. 

Translating the defeat of Hamas’ brigades into the destruction of the organization will require additional Israeli or international measures to prevent Hamas from recovering. Hamas’ military and political destruction requires the articulation of a political end state and the application of the necessary means to achieve that end state. Israel officially seeks to destroy Hamas as both a political and military organization, not merely to defeat its military wing.

Israel continued to destroy Lebanese Hezbollah tactical communications devices on September 18.

Israel simultaneously detonated thousands of pagers used by Lebanese Hezbollah members across Lebanon and Syria on September 17. Lebanese officials reported that around 2,800 individuals were injured, though some reports suggest that the number is closer to 4,000, most of whom are Hezbollah members. Israel reportedly executed the attack by planting one-to-two ounces of explosive material and remote triggers inside a batch of Taiwanese-made pagers en route to Lebanon. Hezbollah had ordered the pagers to communicate across its ranks, as Hezbollah Secretary General ordered group members to limit cellphone usage in order to avoid Israeli detection. Hezbollah responded to the attack by blaming Israel and vowing to retaliate.

Israel is refocusing its operations in the Gaza Strip to prioritize “destroying the pillars of Hamas’ civil rule . . . especially the distribution of humanitarian aid,” according to an anonymous Israeli official. The official told Israeli media that controlling aid distribution enables Hamas to project the image that it still controls the Gazan population.