Ukraine Project

Russian sources claimed on May 5 that Ukrainian forces conducted a series of limited attacks across the Russia-Ukraine international border near Tetkino, Kursk Oblast.

Russia is forcibly deporting Ukrainian civilians from occupied Ukraine to Russia while engaging in a deeply systematic and institutionalized policy of torture against Ukrainians held in Russian detention.

A far-right candidate, George Simion, won the first round of the May 4 presidential election in Romania. Simion's first round victory comes after another far-right candidate, Calin Georgescu, won the November 2024 first round presidential election that Romanian authorities later annulled due to likely Russian interference.

Russian President Vladimir Putin indicated that Russia maintains the initial objectives of its war in Ukraine, which are tantamount to Ukraine's surrender, despite ongoing negotiations with the United States.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky denied that Ukraine would concede to the vague terms of Russian President Vladimir Putin's unilateral May 8-11 Victory Day ceasefire proposal. Zelensky referred to Putin's May 8-11 Victory Day ceasefire demand as a "theatrical production" that does not appear to be serious and is designed to create a sense of comfort and safety for participants of Russia's Victory Day celebration.

Russian gains along the frontline have slowed over the last four months, but Russia continues to tolerate personnel losses comparable to the casualty rate Russian forces sustained during a period of intensified advances between September and December 2024.

The United States and Ukraine published additional information about their April 30 bilateral economic partnership agreement. The Trump administration and the Ukrainian government published the joint text of the US-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund on May 1 and reported that the agreement is a "fully collaborative partnership" that will fund Ukraine's long-term reconstruction and modernization.

Russia continues preparations to deport tens of thousands of Ukrainian children to summer camps across occupied Ukraine and Russia, including to areas of Crimea that are unsafe. The Kherson Oblast occupation administration reported on April 28 that it plans to send 600 children from occupied Henichesk Raion to summer camps in the Adygea Republic throughout Summer 2025 for “recreation and rest.”

The United States and Ukraine signed a bilateral economic partnership agreement on April 30. The US Department of the Treasury announced the agreement, which created the United States-Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund that aims to accelerate Ukraine's economic recovery. The precise terms of the agreement are unspecified as of this publication.

Russian military recruitment officials are reportedly leveraging a new law extending the validity of conscription notices to detain military-aged men and meet Russia's record-high Spring 2025 conscription quota. Putin signed a law on April 21 that simplifies conscription procedures for military aged men who were called up in a semi-annual conscription but did not deploy for compulsory military service.