Iran Project

Iranian-backed militias and Syrian regime forces are continuing to reinforce their positions in Deir ez Zor Province in response to rumors of an imminent International Coalition attack to liberate cities
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The Shia Coordination Framework – a loosely aligned coalition of pro-Iranian political parties – blamed US sanctions on Iranian accounts in Iraq for failures in energy supply to Iraq from Iran, likely to place additional political pressure on the Iraqi government to remove the US from Iraq.

Social media accounts affiliated with the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) circulated a call on July 11 for supporters to storm the US Embassy in Baghdad.

Iran is attempting to reestablish diplomatic relations with Egypt to portray itself as a member of the global community. Normalizing ties with Egypt would likely improve Iran’s economy.

Iranian security personnel violently suppressed injured Iraq-Iran war veterans protesting livelihood conditions in front of the Martyr Affairs Foundation Headquarters in Tehran on July 8..

Iranian-backed militias and Syrian regime forces deployed to Deir ez Zor in response to rumors of an imminent International Coalition attack to liberate cities there which began in late June.

Lebanese Hezbollah and Syrian-regime media outlets claimed the United Arab Emirates (UAE) will pressure Turkey to withdraw its forces from Syria in exchange for direct investment. Iran and Syria may aim to use the media outlets to shape negotiations ahead of talks between Turkey and the Gulf States about Syrian-Turkish normalization.

Four Jaish al Adl militants attacked a police station in Zahedan, Sistan and Baluchistan Province on July 8 in retaliation for the September 2022 “Blood Friday” massacre, indicating that Jaish al Adl is trying to portray itself as the bastion of Iranian Baloch citizens. The Iranian regime limited its response to condemning the attack, likely to maintain stability in this restive border region.

IRGC-affiliated media is touting the successes of Iran-sponsored armed resistance in the West Bank against the recent Israeli raids into the area.

President Ebrahim Raisi will visit Kenya, Uganda, and Zimbabwe on July 11 to expand Iran’s economic influence in Africa, marking the first Iranian presidential visit to Africa in 11 years. Greater economic cooperation with African countries will not enable the Iranian regime to fix the structural flaws in Iran’s economy, however.

Iran bolstered Lebanese Hezbollah’s (LH’s) air defense capabilities likely to establish a deterrent in Lebanon against Israel.

Palestinian militant groups called for a cohesive strategy to counter Israel and may expand their joint military operation against Israel.

Iranian diaspora media, citing Russian investigative sources, claimed on July 6 that Russia has paid Iran nearly 900 million US dollars for Iranian drone technology.

Palestinian militants thanked Iran and the broader Axis of Resistance for their help during the recent Israel Defense Forces (IDF) raid in Jenin and likely will receive Iranian assistance to rebuild the military capabilities the IDF degraded.
Iranian officials inflated the amount of Iranian funds that a recent US sanctions waiver for Iraq will provide, possibly to inspire confidence in Iran’s economy and currency. News of similar waivers for Iraq has coincided with short-term improvements for the Iranian economy.

Iran became a member of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization on July 4, which may enable it to circumvent sanctions through non-US dollar financial transactions with other SCO countries. Iran could benefit militarily from its membership in the SCO through participation in counterterrorism and naval exercises.

Iran attempted to seize two US oil tankers in the Strait on July 5, likely to assert its control over the Strait of Hormuz given the recent US naval deployments to the Persian Gulf. Iran also likely sought to pressure the US to accede to Iran’s demands in the nuclear negotiations.

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Quds Force (IRGC QF) and Lebanese Hezbollah (LH) established a headquarters in eastern Syria, probably to coordinate arms transfers, intelligence collection, and training for Iranian-backed militants in Syria.

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted air strikes on rebel groups in Idlib Province shortly after the failure of the latest normalization and Astana Talks, and Iran may send Iranian-backed militants to in northwestern Syria to support the pro-regime operations.

Iran's worsening water crisis is increasing food insecurity and internal migration, which will likely fuel greater popular unrest in the coming years.

The Syrian Arab Army (SAA) and Russian forces conducted airstrikes on rebel positions in Idlib Province between June 25 and 27. The head of the Russian Reconciliation Center, which is affiliated with the Russian Ministry of Defense in Syria, said the strikes responded to militants in Idlib Province that launched drone strikes into Syrian regime-held territory on June 22 and 23. He said on June 29 that the airstrikes will continue until the “elimination of militants.” The UK-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights noted that the airstrikes are the deadliest in 2023 and resulted in at least 22 casualties. Hundreds of thousands of Syrian civilians and militants relocated to Idlib Province during the Syrian civil war, which makes it the last rebel stronghold in Syria. The US-designated terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham established an Islamist government in Idlib Province in 2017. Russia and Turkey agreed to a series of de-escalation agreements in 2017 and 2018 to stall a broader Turkish military incursion into Idlib Province. However, Russian forces and Iranian-backed militants supported the Syrian President Bashar al Assad regime in launching an offensive to retake Idlib Province in 2019, which concluded in a ceasefire agreement in 2020. Since the ceasefire, Russian forces have conducted several airstrikes on rebel positions which rarely resulted in further escalation.

Key Takeaways

Iranian-backed militants are building new military sites south of Damascus City likely as part of the Iranian effort to secure transportation routes throughout Syria and connecting to the Golan Heights and Lebanon.
Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan traveled to Moscow on June 27 to expand internal security cooperation with Russian security services.

Iran is framing the US-led international coalition in Syria as an imminent security threat to local Syrians, possibly to incite and sustain local support to expel US forces from Syria. Iran maintains the capability to attack US forces in the Middle East via its proxies but has restrained them from conducting attacks.

Law Enforcement Commander Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Radan will soon travel to Russia to increase security cooperation with Moscow. Iran may seek Russian security assistance to crack down more forcefully on Iranian anti-regime activity.

The IRGC appointed two new northwest regional commanders on June 26, indicating the regime’s focus on security threats in the area.

The 20th round of Astana talks, which aim to end the Syria conflict, concluded in Astana, Kazakhstan on June 21 without an agreement. Iran and Syria messaged ahead of the forum that their positions are aligned for quadripartite talks, possibly signaling that Iran will back the Assad regime’s demand for Turkey’s complete withdrawal from Syria as a precondition for future Astana talks.

The Iranian rial has appreciated approximately ten percent since May 1, likely in part due to the Raisi administration’s economic diplomacy efforts. The Raisi administration’s economic diplomacy combined with ongoing nuclear talks may have generated confidence in the future of the Iranian economy, consequently increasing the value of the rial.

Iranian companies are competing for Syrian electricity infrastructure contracts, likely to generate additional revenue for the Iranian economy and reinforce Iranian ties with the Syrian regime. Syrian Electricity Minister Ghassan al Zamil met with Iranian businesspeople to discuss establishing hydroelectric dams in Syria on June 20 in Damascus. This meeting comes after Iranian Energy Minister Ali Akbar Mehrabian announced that Iran will help rehabilitate the Syrian water and electricity industry on May 7. It also follows Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi’s visit to Syria from May 3-4, during which he and Syrian President Bashar al Assad signed 15 cooperation agreements and memorandums of understanding that cover oil, energy, transportation, reconstruction, and communications technology. The meeting demonstrates that Iran intends to be the primary provider of reconstruction projects in Syria.