Iran Project

The Pakistani armed forces conducted cross-border attacks targeting Baloch separatists in three locations near Saravan, Iran, on January 17.[1] Pakistan announced that it fired a combination of drones, rockets, and air-launched standoff munitions to target Baluchistan Liberation Army (BLA) and Baluchistan Liberation Front (BLF) sites in Iran.[2] The BLA and BLF are Baloch ethno-separatist groups that maintain ongoing insurgencies inside Pakistan. Pakistan framed the strikes as responses to Iran’s failure to prevent Baloch separatist groups based in Iran from conducting attacks inside Pakistan.[3] Pakistani media reported that the strikes killed and/or injured seven BLF fighters.[4] Pakistani Foreign Affairs Ministry officials emphasized that the strikes did not target the Iranian regime. The Pakistani strikes follow the IRGC’s drone and missile strikes on two Jaish al Adl headquarters in Koh Sabz, Baluchistan Province, Pakistan on January 16.[5]

Palestinian fighters are attacking Israeli forces in areas of the northern Gaza Strip where Israeli forces conducted clearing operations previously. CTP-ISW reported on January 16 that Palestinian militias have renewed attacks in the northern Gaza Strip, particularly around Jabalia and Sheikh Radwan. Hamas’ military wing, the al Qassem Brigades, conducted five attacks in Jabalia, Sheikh Radwan, and Karama neighborhoods on January 17. The self-proclaimed military wing of Fatah, the al Aqsa Martyrs’ Brigades, fired rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) and small arms at Israeli forces in Karama as well. A Palestinian journalist reported on January 17 that Israeli forces entered Rimal neighborhood in southwestern Gaza City. CTP-ISW assessed on January 16 that Palestinian militias are likely reinfiltrating this area. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on January 17 that its forces directed an airstrike that targeted two Palestinian fighters in Sheikh Ijlin neighborhood in southwestern Gaza City. The IDF also found large amounts of weapons in the area.

Palestinian militias are likely re-infiltrating into areas of the northern Gaza Strip where Israeli forces previously conducted clearing operations. CTP-ISW has observed renewed militant activity in several neighborhoods across the northern part of the strip in recent weeks, as Israeli forces have transitioned to less intense fighting there. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) confirmed on December 31, 2023, that it withdrew five brigades from the northern Gaza Strip and said that it would transition to targeted raids with its remaining forces. CTP-ISW assessed on January 2 that the IDF transitioning to this new phase of operations will very likely enable Hamas to reconstitute itself militarily.

The Houthis continued attacking and harassing US naval forces and commercial shipping in the Red Sea on January 14 and 15. US fighter aircraft shot down an anti-ship cruise missile (ASCM) fired from Houthi-controlled territory in Yemen toward the USS Laboon in the southern Red Sea on January 14. The ASCM did not cause any injuries or damage. Houthi militants also fired an anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) toward the Marshall Islands-flagged, US-owned and operated Gibraltar Eagle on January 15. This attack marks the first time the Houthis have successfully attacked a US-owned or operated commercial vessel since the Israel-Hamas war began. The ASBM struck the port side of the vessel but did not cause significant damage. US forces detected a separate anti-ship ballistic missile (ASBM) fired toward commercial shipping lanes in the southern Red Sea on January 15. The ASBM failed in flight and did not cause any injuries or damage.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated on January 14 that Israel will continue its fight against Hamas until the IDF achieves a “complete victory.” Netanyahu said that he told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken that the Israel-Hamas War is also the United States’ war because Israel is fighting Iran’s Axis of Resistance. Netanyahu’s stated war aims are destroying Hamas as a governing body and military force, rescuing the Israeli hostages, and “deradicalizing Palestinian society.”

The Iranian-backed Badr Organization announced the submission of a draft law that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq. This law is part of Iran’s decades-old effort to expel US forces from Iraq and the region. Conquest Alliance MP Faleh al Khazali said that the law is the result of “the Americans’ continued violations of Iraqi sovereignty.” The United States has not violated Iraqi sovereignty because it is conducting self-defense strikes against militias firing at US servicemembers. Khazali announced a draft law on January 13 that requires the removal of US forces from Iraq. Conquest Alliance is the Badr Organization’s political arm in parliament. Eighty-eight parliamentarians signed the draft law, which is 77 signatures short of a majority. The law calls for the removal of US forces and the formation of a committee led by the prime minister to implement the law. The committee will present a report to the Iraqi parliament that will describe the “requirements for ending” the US force presence in Iraq.

Palestinian militias claimed several attacks in the northern Gaza Strip on January 11. The military wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ), the al Quds Brigades, claimed to fire tandem-charge anti-tank rockets at an Israeli tank in Jabalia City. The group also said that it shot down an Israeli tactical reconnaissance drone in the same area. A Palestinian journalist reported on January 9 that Israeli forces and Palestinian fighters clashed in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood bordering Jabalia City as Israeli forces “repositioned” in Gaza City. Palestinian militias conducted nearly daily attacks targeting Israeli forces throughout December in Jabalia City, Jabalia refugee camp, and Sheikh Radwan. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on January 6 that it had “dismantled” the 12 Hamas battalions in the northern Gaza Strip. Palestinian militias operating in the northern Gaza Strip remain capable of disrupting Israeli operations there, however.

Hamas published several videos of its operations in the northern Gaza Strip, messaging that it still has a military presence there. Hamas’ military wing—the al Qassem Brigades—published these videos on January 9 and 10. The footage features various al Qassem Brigades operations, including the capture of an Israeli drone in Beit Lahia, rocket-propelled grenade (RPG) attacks on Israeli armor and dismounted infantry in the northwestern Gaza Strip and southern Gaza City, and an ambush on Israeli soldiers in a tunnel in Sheikh Radwan dating to late December 2023. Hamas’ political wing simarly messaged on January 9 that the group retains a strong and cohesive command-and-control network in the Gaza Strip. CTP-ISW has repeatedly assessed, however, that Hamas has lost command-and-control over some units that are engaged with Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip.

Palestinian militias are continuing to report attacks in the northern Gaza Strip to their higher headquarters after their fighters return to rear areas. The delays in reporting may indicate a loss of command and control over some units that are engaged with Israeli forces, as CTP-ISW previously assessed. Hamas’ military wing, the al Qassem Brigades, claimed on January 8 that its fighters “returned from the [frontlines in northwest Gaza City]” and reported that they fired anti-tank rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) at an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Engineering Corps armored personnel carrier. These fighters' inability to communicate with higher headquarters until returning to rear areas means that their commanders may be unable to transmit orders to fighters engaged with the IDF. These possible difficulties in command and control extend to other Palestinian militia groups fighting in the northern Gaza Strip. The Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine’s (PFLP) military wing, the Abu Ali Mustafa Brigades, claimed on January 8 that it reestablished ”contact with combat units” and confirmed that its fighters targeted three IDF vehicles with unspecified weapons in Tuffah in the northern Gaza Strip.

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced on January 6 that it “dismantled” the 12 Hamas battalions in the northern Gaza Strip. IDF officials added that they have dismantled Hamas’ “military framework” in the northern Gaza Strip. An Israeli Army Radio defense correspondent reported on January 6 that Israeli forces no longer permanently operate in the entire area of the northern strip and have moved to the border with Israel. IDF spokesperson Rear Admiral Daniel Hagari said on January 6 that the IDF would focus on the central and southern parts of the Gaza Strip and strengthen defenses along the Israel-Gaza Strip border fence. These announcements are consistent with the IDF stating that it would establish a security buffer zone in the northern Gaza Strip in the third phase of its operations. This third phase also involved Israeli forces conducting raids against Hamas compounds, destroying tunnels, killing remaining fighters, and seizing intelligence and military equipment. CTP-ISW assessed on December 22 that, in Hamas’ Northern Strip Brigade and Gaza City Brigade, three battalions are combat ineffective, eight are degraded, and one is combat effective. CTP-ISW assesses that the al Qassem Brigades’ Radwan Battalion is degraded but not combat ineffective. Israeli forces captured a Hamas compound in Sheikh Radwan neighborhood of Gaza City on January 2. The militia has not claimed attacks in the neighborhood since December 30, 2023.