Iran Project

Iran and the Houthis are functioning as a coalition to conduct combined military operations targeting international shipping in the Red Sea. Iran considers the Axis of Resistance as its unconventional alliance of state, semi-state, and non-state actors. Their anti-US and anti-Israeli ideology unites the Axis of Resistance, creating strategic alignment across its members. Multiple US officials have highlighted the role Iran plays in the targeting and execution of Houthi attacks against international shipping. Iran provides the weapons and uses advisers on the ground in Yemen and at least one spy ship anchored in the Red Sea to support its Houthi partners, who execute the attacks based on Iranian advice and intelligence.

Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are signaling their capability and willingness to attack maritime targets beyond just the Persian Gulf and Red Sea. A one-way drone struck a commercial vessel off the coast of India, causing structural damage to the ship, on December 23. The vessel is partially Israeli-owned. Israeli media reported that Iran was responsible for the attack, which is consistent with the ongoing anti-shipping campaign that Iran and the Houthi movement have conducted around the Bab al Mandeb in recent weeks. This attack follows the Islamic Resistance of Iraq—a coalition of Iranian-backed Iraqi militias—claiming on December 22 that it conducted an unspecified attack on a “vital target” in the Mediterranean Sea. There is no evidence that the Islamic Resistance of Iraq conducted an attack into the Mediterranean Sea at the time of writing. The claim, nevertheless, signals the readiness of the Iraqi group to participate in the Iran-led attack campaign on maritime targets. Finally, a senior commander in Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC), Brigadier General Mohammad Reza Naghdi, threatened to expand the anti-shipping campaign to the Mediterranean Sea and Strait of Gibraltar on December 23. Naghdi frequently makes inflammatory threats toward Iranian adversaries, but his statement is particularly noteworthy given the drone attack off the Indian coast and the claimed attack by the Islamic Resistance of Iraq. Iran and its Axis of Resistance are likely messaging their capability and willingness to widen geographically their anti-shipping attack campaign in response to the United States forming a multinational naval task force to safeguard commercial traffic around the Red Sea.

Israeli forces are executing tasks consistent with holding operations in Beit Hanoun and al Shati Camp in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces redeployed some units responsible for clearing Beit Hanoun and al Shati Camp and backfilled them with new units in mid-December to hold the cleared areas.

This report presents the order of battle (ORBAT) of the al Qassem Brigades at the brigade and the battalion level. The lack of adequate reporting on Hamas’ units at the company level and below precludes a more detailed presentation of those echelons. This ORBAT presents the formal structure of the al Qassem Brigades during the Israeli ground operation in Israel. The actual structure of the al Qassem Brigades may change as the ground operation progresses and Israeli forces destroy Hamas units or render them combat ineffective.

Israeli forces have expanded clearing operation to target Hamas’ Central Gaza Strip Brigade, as Israeli forces transition into holding operations in parts of the northern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 21 that it conducted an operation in the Bakshi neighborhood, south of Gaza City, targeting Hamas’ Nuseirat Battalion. This battalion is part of the Central Gaza Strip Brigade, which CTP-ISW assessed remains combat effective at this time. The IDF stated that it plans to establish “operational control . . . in the center of the Gaza Strip in the buffer zone between the north of the Gaza Strip and the central camps.” Hamas maintains five geographical brigades in the Gaza Strip.

Israeli forces are transitioning from clearing operations to holding operations in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli forces in some areas of the northern Gaza Strip, such as Beit Hanoun and the al Shati camp, are beginning to execute tasks analogous to the US military definition of a holding operation. A holding operation “involves disrupting [enemy] activities in an area and providing a good security environment for the population” and “focuses on securing the population.” The Israeli Defense Minister said on December 18 that the IDF is preparing to transition to a “day after” the war and that Israel will begin bringing back the local population in some areas of the strip. The IDF redeployed some of the units responsible for clearing Beit Hanoun and al Shati camp and backfilled them with new units to hold the areas.The backfilling units are continuing lower intensity operations, such as raids against infrastructure and clashing with small cells of Palestinian fighters.The hold phase is defined by a decreased level of violence, but it still requires holding forces to engage and eliminate enemy forces and infrastructure to provide security.

Israel has degraded Hamas’ North Gaza Brigade, which is consistent with CTP-ISW's observation that Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) announced the beginning of clearing operations in Jabalia on November 18. The IDF reported on December 19 that it completely “dismantled” Hamas’ three battalions operating in Jabalia. About 500 suspected Palestinians fighters surrendered to Israeli forces in the Jabalia refugee camp, some of whom belong to Hamas and Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ). Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF fought “hard battles” in Jabalia against Palestinian militias for more than two weeks until Israeli forces had killed over 1,000 fighters. IDF Brigadier General Itzik Cohen said that the fighting in Jabalia "resulted in the dismantling of the military capacity” of Hamas’ North Gaza Brigade. The IDF estimated on December 19 that there are only a few militia fighters left in the Jabalia area.

Israel appears to be nearing the final stages of its clearing operation in the northern Gaza Strip. Israeli ground forces advanced into the northern Gaza Strip on October 27. Israeli clearing operations have relied on ground, air, and naval forces to destroy Hamas’ military infrastructure, namely its tunnel system and command structure. Palestinian militia fighters have clashed with Israeli forces in virtually all neighborhoods of the northern Gaza Strip since October 27. The Israeli Army Radio reported that the IDF has killed between 6,000 and 7,000 Palestinian militia fighters since the war began. Operations in the northern Gaza Strip likely resulted in most of the deaths. CTP-ISW defines “degrade” as a temporary effect whereby a unit’s losses seriously impede its ability to continue executing assigned missions while the unit remains able to operate.

Israeli forces uncovered an advanced and extensive Hamas tunnel system in the northern Gaza Strip. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reported on December 17 that its forces had uncovered four kilometers of the tunnel near the Erez crossing in recent weeks. The tunnel is wide enough for vehicles to pass through it, reinforced with concrete, and connected to electricity and communications infrastructure. Israel said one section of the tunnel is the largest that it has discovered in the Gaza Strip and 400 meters from Israeli territory. The IDF stated that it was not familiar with the tunnel route nor its enormous scope prior to the war. The Wall Street Journal published a map of the tunnel system that Hamas has created below the Gaza Strip based on data from 2014, which includes a singular tunnel running south of the Erez checkpoint. The IDF published a map on December 17 of the entire tunnel network that it has uncovered, which shows a notable expansion of the tunnels’ coverage and complexity compared to the 2014 data.

The Houthis refocused their attack campaign to target Israel directly rather than international shipping and may have concluded that they achieved their objective of halting shipping through the Red Sea.