Iran Project

Unspecified US officials told Axios on August 5 that the US intelligence community expects Iran and its Axis of Resistance to conduct two waves of attacks in its retaliation against Israel for the death of Haniyeh in Tehran on July 31. US intelligence officials reportedly briefed a potential scenario to US President Joe Biden and US Vice President Kamala Harris in which Hezbollah would conduct an attack on Israel in a wave separate from another Iranian and Axis attack. Intelligence officials noted that it is not clear whether Iran and the Axis or Hezbollah would launch the first attack. One unspecified US official cited by Axios said that intelligence reports suggest Iranian and Hezbollah planning is a “work in progress.”

Iranian armed forces-run Defa Press published a list of potential civilian and military targets in Israel on August 5, which likely aims to decrease Israel’s ability to effectively defend against an Iranian attack by causing Israel to air- and missile-defense assets and creating panic among civilians.

Iran and its Axis of Resistance will most likely conduct a coordinated, large-scale drone and missile attack on Israel in response to Israel killing Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran. CTP-ISW previously outlined this scenario as one of the most dangerous courses of action that Iran could pursue.

Iran and Lebanese Hezbollah have refused to speak with US and Arab diplomats trying to deescalate between Israel and Iran, according to the Wall Street Journal on August 3. The Wall Street Journal reported that  the United States and Israel are preparing for an “unpredictable,” broader, and more complex attack than Iran’s April 2024 drone and missile strike on Israel. Iranian officials warned Israel of their plans ahead of the attack in April 2024, providing the United States and Israel with time to prepare. Former White House Middle East director Andrew Tabler told the Wall Street Journal that “less telegraphing means potential to misjudge the next step on the escalatory ladder.” 

Iran and the Axis of Resistance are messaging that they will conduct a coordinated, large-scale attack on Israel in retaliation for Israel killing several Axis of Resistance leaders, including Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh, in recent days. Senior Iranian security officials, including Armed Forces General Staff Chief Major General Mohammad Bagheri and Supreme National Security Council Secretary Ali Akbar Ahmadian, suggested that both Iran and the Axis of Resistance will retaliate against Israel.

Israel killed Hamas Political Bureau Chairman Ismail Haniyeh in Tehran on July 30

The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) likely killed a senior Lebanese Hezbollah commander in southern Beirut on July 30. The IDF Air Force targeted Fuad Shukr in response to a Hezbollah rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children in the Israel-controlled Golan Heights on July 27. The IDF claimed that the strike killed Shukr while Lebanese sources said he survived the strike. A Saudi government-owned media outlet and a Lebanese outlet both also confirmed that Shukr died in the strike.

The Israeli Security Cabinet approved an Israeli military response against Lebanese Hezbollah on July 28. The Israeli Security Cabinet authorized Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Yoav Gallant to determine the “manner and timing” of Israel’s retaliation for the July 27 rocket attack on Majdal Shams in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights. Lebanese Hezbollah likely conducted the attack, which killed 12 Israeli children.

Hezbollah likely conducted the July 27 rocket attack that killed 12 Israeli children in Majdal Shams, Golan Heights.

The IDF assessed that Lebanese Hezbollah conducted a rocket attack that killed at least ten Israeli children and “youths” and wounded 30 other Israeli civilians in Majdal Shams, Golan Heights, on July 27. The IDF assessed that Hezbollah conducted the attack using at least 40 projectiles in three separate barrages. Hezbollah denied responsibility for the attack. The rockets struck a soccer field in Majdal Shams, which is a Druze village in the Golan Heights.  Israeli media reported that many the wounded civilians are children. Israeli media reported that this attack caused the most civilian casualties in northern Israel since October 2023.