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Iran and its so-called “Axis of Resistance” are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to demonstrate their capability to control a key maritime route and chokepoint in the Middle East. The Houthis have conducted almost daily drone and missile attacks against commercial vessels transiting the Bab al Mandeb since December 9.
Israeli forces are engaged in intense fighting around Shujaiya and Zaytoun neighborhoods of Gaza city. Israel Defense Forces (IDF) Chief of Staff Herzi Halevi told Israeli forces in the Gaza Strip that they are facing challenging terrain in these areas. These remarks are unsurprising in part because Shujaiya is one of the most densely populated areas of the Gaza Strip. Israeli forces searched on December 13 a school compound that Hamas’ Shujaiya Battalion used. Israeli forces also cleared nearby tunnels.
Hamas conducted a complex, multi-part ambush targeting an Israeli patrol and quick reaction force (QRF) in Shujaiya’s kasbah on December 12. Hamas ambushed an Israeli fireteam entering a three-building complex during Israeli clearing operations in Shujaiya. Hamas fighters detonated an IED and fired small arms at the Israeli fireteam during the initial ambush. Israeli forces nearby lost contact with the Israeli fireteam inside the building and launched a QRF to rescue the fireteam. One Israeli force moved north of the three-building complex, while another moved south. Hamas fighters continued to attack the QRF by setting off IEDs and throwing grenades at Israeli forces. Israel recovered the bodies of the Israeli fireteam, but five additional Israeli soldiers died during the rescue operation including a battalion commander, three company commanders, and the “head of the Golani Brigade’s forward command team.”
Palestinian militias are attempting to resist Israeli advances north and east of Khan Younis. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that it detonated multiple claymore-type, anti-personnel mines targeting ten Israeli soldiers east of Khan Younis. The militia also claimed that it inflicted five casualties during a small arms clash with Israeli forces along the Israeli forward line of advance in al Qarara, north of Khan Younis . The al Qassem Brigades separately mortared Israeli soldiers advancing north and east of Khan Younis. The al Quds Brigades—the militant wing of Palestinian Islamic Jihad (PIJ)—claimed that it conducted four mortar and rocket attacks on Israeli forces advancing into Khan Younis. Al Quds Brigades fighters fired tandem-charge rocket-propelled grenades (RPG) at an Israeli armored personnel carrier east of Khan Younis. The National Resistance Brigade—the militant wing of Democratic Front for the Liberation of Palestine (DFLP)—used mortars against Israeli forces advancing east of Khan Younis. Residents published footage of audible small arms fire east of Khan Younis on December 12. The BBC reported on December 11 that the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) had captured most of the four main towns east of Khan Younis.
Israeli forces are degrading Hamas’ battalions in Shujaiya and Jabalia. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said on December 11 that Hamas’ Jabalia and Shujaiya Battalions are “on the verge of being dismantled.” CTP-ISW defines “degrade” as a temporary effect whereby a unit’s losses seriously impede its ability to continue executing assigned missions while the unit remains able to operate. Israeli forces captured Hamas military infrastructure in Jabalia, including explosives manufacturing facilities, training facilities, and weapons caches. The loss of these facilities will temporarily negatively affect Hamas’ Jabalia al Balad Battalion’s ability to execute its assigned missions, which include using improvised explosive devices and rocket-propelled grenades to resist Israeli advances.
Palestinian militias continued to attack Israeli forces on the Israeli forward line of advance in Khan Younis on December 10. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) continued targeting Palestinian militia sites in Khan Younis, Jabalia, Shujaiya, and Beit Hanoun. Israeli forces attacked underground tunnels in Khan Younis and conducted airstrikes to support ground maneuvers. The al Qassem Brigades—the militant wing of Hamas—claimed that its fighters detonated an explosively formed penetrator (EFP) targeting Israeli forces northeast of Khan Younis. The militia claimed to kill 13 Israeli soldiers in the EFP attack and two more soldiers with small arms afterward the initial explosion. EFPs are particularly lethal improvised explosive devices designed to penetrate armored vehicles, such as main battle tanks. This attack is consistent with the shift of Hamas and other Palestinian militias using increasingly sophisticated tactics since the humanitarian pause expired on December 1.
Israeli forces continued clearing operations in Khan Younis as Palestinian militias attempt to resist Israeli advances. Israeli forces located several tunnel shafts and a Hamas military headquarters as they advanced in Khan Younis. The Israel Defense Forces (IDF) engaged three Palestinian fighters as they emerged from a tunnel in central Khan Younis and fired a rocket-propelled grenade (RPG).Hamas maintains an extensive tunnel system across the Gaza Strip, which Israeli forces have destroyed as they have advanced. Israeli forces also raided a mosque from which Hamas fighters were operating. The IDF said the Hamas fighters detonated an IED near Israeli forces.
Iranian-backed Iraqi militias conducted an indirect fire attack targeting the US Embassy in Baghdad on December 8 for the first time since 2021, marking a notable escalation in Iranian efforts to expel US forces from Iraq. An unidentified US military official reported that unidentified militants fired multiple rockets at the US Embassy in Baghdad and Forward Operating Base (FOB) Union III, landing near the embassy’s gates and in the river nearby.
The al Qassem Brigades are the military component of Hamas and the means by which Hamas seeks to destroy the Israeli state and form an Islamic state in Palestine. Hamas is a highly organized group that views terrorism and military action as the only method through which it can destroy the Israeli state. The al Qassem Brigades are commanded by Mohammad Deif and are subordinated to the overall Hamas political leadership responsible to Ismail Haniyeh. They coordinate closely with the Hamas political leader in the Gaza Strip, Yahya Sinwar. Hamas defines itself as a "Palestinian national liberation and resistance movement” intent on establishing an Islamic Palestinian state that stretches “from the River Jordan...to the Mediterranean and from Ras al Naqurah...to Umm al Rashrash.” It is also a member of Iran’s ”Axis of Resistance,” the regional coalition of states and groups that Tehran has built as part of its effort to destroy Israel and expel the United States from the Middle East. Hamas states that "armed resistance” is a "strategic choice” to protect the Palestinian people and rejects "any attempt to undermine [Hamas’] resistance.” Hamas is fighting alongside other Palestinian resistance groups such as Palestinian Islamic Jihad and the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine, with which it engages in operational and tactical coordination.
Iranian-backed Iraqi actors are exploiting the Israel-Hamas war to try to expel US forces from Iraq. Forcing the removal of the US military is one of Iran’s most important strategic objectives in the Middle East. CTP-ISW previously assessed that the dozens of Iranian-backed militia attacks on US military positions in recent weeks have been meant to impose a cost on the United States for supporting Israel while also eroding American willingness to remain militarily in Iraq and Syria. Iranian and Axis of Resistance leaders are operating on the theory that relatively low levels of militant pressure gradually diminish the willingness of the US political establishment to sustain deployments in the Middle East.